KEY POINTS:
New Zealand's biggest industry, tourism, is set to suffer as oil resources dry up, and the problem has yet to be addressed, a university researcher warns.
Dr Suzanne Becken, of Lincoln University, said the country's dependence on oil for tourism was large and increasing, and tourism agencies should be concerned.
Most experts expected global oil supplies to peak between 2010 and 2020.
"Oil scarcity and a lack of alternative fuels for aviation will lead to higher prices and lower demand. Tourism forecasts do not seem to take the challenge of oil availability into account and may be overly optimistic," Dr Becken said. "There is the risk that under a more extreme depletion forecast, oil will only be available for essential and life-supporting activities. In this case it is unlikely that tourism will be considered as a priority."
Tourism New Zealand has considered how rising fuel costs will impact on the future of its business.
It had already been through rising airfare surcharges brought about by increased fuel costs "and we managed to weather that storm pretty well", said chief executive George Hickton.
He said the focus was on making New Zealand a premium tourist destination "because it will always be expensive to travel to New Zealand, being so far away".
Massive impacts on tourism brought about by "fuel, fighting or flu" were always a possibility.
Dr Becken has suggested that tourism agencies may need to focus on the more "eco-efficient" tourist markets.
By calculating the energy used in transport, Chinese tourists were the most eco-efficient, followed by the Australians and Singaporeans. Americans, Canadians and Germans were the least eco-efficient visitors.
"A transition to less oil-intensive tourism is inevitable. For destinations that rely totally on international air travel it might be wise to reconsider re-investing in domestic tourism, and the development of fossil-free transport systems."
Mr Hickton said Tourism New Zealand was focusing more on the Australian market because the shorter flights meant less fuel usage and environmental impacts.
