NZ amongst the laggards in international efforts on Kyoto

BUENOS AIRES - New Zealand ranks high among the industrialised countries now facing greehouse gas emissions beyond their agreed targets for 2012, Reuters reports.

The Kyoto protocol to cut greenhouse gases goes into effect two months from now and Canada leads the laggards with emissions growth at 20 per cent from its levels in 1990 although it has committed to a 6 per cent reduction by 2012.

Japan's emissions are up 12 per cent and it has to cut them also by six, while New Zealand must show zero growth and is currently up 21 per cent.

The European Union as a whole is doing better, with a 2.9 per cent fall toward a 2012 target of minus 8 per cent. But there are problems, for example, in Italy, which is 8 per cent higher and must go 8 per cent lower.

The UN-backed Kyoto deal aims to reduce the emissions of six major heat-trapping gases including carbon dioxide by 5.2 per cent, a first small step in the fight against global warming.

Although the planned global reduction of 5.2 per cent on 1990 emissions will actually be a 25 per cent reduction on the levels which would otherwise have been seen in 2012, it is far below the 70 per cent reduction climate experts regard as necessary.

Energy Minister Pete Hodgson, convener of the Government's ministerial committee on climate change, has previously said the Kyoto Protocol has "close to zero" chance of providing any significant relief from global climate change.

Instead, he sees the first commitment period as just the first step in changing national behaviour on greenhouse gas emissions.

According to New Zealand's Climate Change Office, the nation's latest greenhouse gas inventory shows New Zealand's emission are increasing, with carbon dioxide emissions running 28 per cent higher than they were in 1990.

"Transport sector emissions are continuing to grow rapidly and now make up almost 40 per cent of New Zealand total carbon dioxide emissions," the office said on its website. "If we did nothing to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions, our total emissions would be 14 per cent to 20 per cent over our target by 2012."

To deal with emissions above its 1990 level, New Zealand can buy carbon credits on international markets or use its "forest sink" credits.

Growing trees remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, and store it as wood. Because New Zealand's commercial forests planted since 1990 have grown significantly, they are expected to remove 100 million tonnes of carbon dioxide in the first committment period to 2012.

New Zealand has also sought to be allowed to count the carbon dioxide "sunk" in regenerating native forest and scrub -- which cover five times the area under plantation forest.

In fact, New Zealand stands to have a small surplus of about 55 million tonnes of greenhouse gas "savings" after accounting for its emissions in the first commitment period.

The Government has predicted that international trade in "carbon sink" credits is likely to give New Zealand a gain of $1.1 billion over five years, if the price of carbon credits is around $20 a tonne. The Government will pocket this money on behalf of the nation, as well as taking on the liabilities of the forestry sector: such as the carbon "debt" incurred when wildfires destroy a "Kyoto" forest.

The Government of the day in 2007 is expected to announce in the budget for the following year mechanisms such as a "carbon tax" of up to $25 a tonne on emissions of the six main greenhouse gases, pushing up retail prices for petrol (up to 6 per cent), diesel (up to 12 per cent), gas and electricity (8 to 9 per cent) and coal (19 per cent).

Agriculture will have an exemption, although farmers are already paying for research to reduce methane and nitrous oxide emissions.

The Government is cutting deals with industrial sectors which are economically important but use a lot of energy or generate a lot of greenhouse gases -- such as metal refining, cement manufacture, milk powder manufacture and some forestry processing.

It is also handing out greenhouse gas credits to businesses with projects which will reduce their greenhouse gas emissions, usually by reducing use of fossil fuels.

Reuters reports that Russia's decision in September to ratify Kyoto, allowing the treaty to go into force early next year, might have caught countries by surprise as they expected a more protracted battle.

But negotiators and activists on the sidelines of this week's UN conference on climate change -- the first with Kyoto ready to go -- say Kyoto's compliance rules are going to work.

The EU, the driving force behind the fight against global warming, will benefit from its emissions trading system that goes into effect on January 1. Less polluting nations and industries can sell carbon credits to the more polluting ones.

EU Environment Commissioner Stavros Dimas said he had no doubt that "the EU will be able to meet its Kyoto targets, provided we sustain our efforts."

But Canada cannot say the same. "Is it absolutely certain we will get to Kyoto? No, it is not absolutely certain," Alex Manson, director of Canada's Climate Change Bureau, told Reuters.

He said Canada picked up the pace against emissions in 2003, but it has been hurt by the fact that its biggest trading partner -- the United States -- withdrew from Kyoto in 2001. US emissions are 12 per cent up since 1990.

"It does affect some of the measures you can take in some sectors. It didn't make our problem any easier," Mr Manson said.

- REUTERS