Low lakes spark fears of power crisis

Falling southern hydro-lake levels are fuelling concerns of a looming power crisis, with crunch time likely next winter.

New Zealanders are being told to switch off lights and save electricity where possible in a bid to avert cuts next winter.

The two lakes at the heart of state-owned enterprise Meridian Energy's Waitaki scheme, Tekapo and Pukaki, have emptied to within metres of their minimum operating levels and are still waiting to be topped up by seasonal rains.

Lake Pukaki was only 28 per cent full yesterday, at 522.05 metres above sea level, 3.85m above its minimum operating level. Lake Tekapo was 38 per cent full at 705.02m, 2.92m above minimum.

In the North Island, thermal power plants are working at full capacity to meet demand.

Power industry consultant Bryan Leyland said New Zealanders should be switching off lights now.

"It's next year we have got to be concerned about. If I were on the Electricity Commission, I would be advising the Government of a significant risk of electricity shortages next year.

"Many in the industry think that by now concerns should be being flagged. We have had no spare capacity for the last six months."

Christchurch electricity analyst John Noble also warns of problems ahead.

"The margin between installed generation capacity and demand will be at its lowest next year. If we lose a machine next winter, combined with a drought, we could really be in a lot of trouble.

"A cold winter on top of that compounds it," Mr Noble said.

Meridian spokesman Alan Seay said the SOE had concerns about the power supply squeeze next year. However, all it needed now to fill the lakes was two weeks' rain.

"We're not getting anything major on-stream in the way of new generation. The crunch is going to come next winter. We will need every bit of storage in the lakes, (to be) as close to maximum operating levels as they can be."

Genesis Energy's gas plant at Huntly, New Zealand's next big power station, is not due to be commissioned until December 2006.

Genesis public affairs manager Richard Gordon said coal was being stockpiled at Huntly ready for next year. A two-month supply of coal was available, but the reserve stockpile was being increased to last three months in preparation for next winter.

Despite industry warnings, the Electricity Commission is sticking with predictions that New Zealand will not face a power crisis in six months' time.

Chairman Roy Hemmingway said he was not expecting a one-in-60-year dry spell, though he was aware of the low lakes.

"We still don't see a problem for next winter but we are keeping an eye on things. If we don't think we could meet the one-in-60, we'll take appropriate action, (with) calls for conservation."

Orion NZ chief executive Roger Sutton said he had confidence in the commission to handle any potential shortages.

"Because of the dry years we have had relatively recently, I think the industry is much better at managing and monitoring inflows and coordinating over the chance of a shortage."

- nzpa