Counting up to the big 3000

Jason Wong

The bets are off as to when the NZSX-50 will top 3000, but with new highs coming weekly the countdown is definitely on.

The index has risen more than 500 points - from 2450.344 at the start of the year to 2968 on Friday - or just over 20 per cent this year.

And although some feel that the market is fully valued, it is still going strong.

Brett Wilkinson of Direct Broking said the market was well underpinned on three fronts. They were:

* A lack of alternative investments because the property market had run its course.

* A weight of money from capital returns and share buybacks.

* More money in the hands of fund managers including the New Zealand Superannuation Fund.

The NZX says that in the year to November 19, the NZSX-50 moved up at an average rate of 11.6 points a week, so 3000 looks to be a couple of weeks off.

But it could happen this week, as the biggest weekly move over that time was a gain of 68.1 points, which happened in March.

And in each of the first two weeks of this month, it went up by more than 50 points.

The biggest weekly fall in this period was a drop of 47.4 points during the week ending October 22.

Adding to the upbeat sentiment has been the positive, but minor, reporting season now coming to an end.

First NZ Capital strategist Jason Wong analysed company earnings and the outlook statements given at recent annual meetings.

"Overall, the vibe remains very positive, with only a handful of companies deciding that a more cautious tone was appropriate," he said

Wong said strong earnings growth was reported by CanWest Mediaworks, Contact Energy and Fisher & Paykel Healthcare.

"Companies exposed to the stronger-for-longer economy, such as Fletcher Building and Freightways, offered very positive trading updates," he said.

On the negative side, retailers reported weak growth in sales, and rising prices for raw materials and a strong New Zealand-Australia dollar cross were themes for manufacturing companies.

The annual meeting season is slowing, and only a few stragglers still have to gather.

Toll New Zealand is this week's big-name meeting.

It is a meeting majority shareholder Toll Holdings would rather not be holding, as it wanted to own 100 per cent of the company and take it off the market.

It did not happen and the Australians have to keep New Zealanders informed about what they are doing.