Editorial: Big cracks starting to show in economy, Financial Stability Report and others show

Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr presents his Financial Stability Report (FSR ) for New Zealand for 2022 at Te Putea Matua Reserve Bank of New Zealand in Wellington. Picture / Supplied

EDITORIAL:

The Reserve Bank's latest Financial Stability Report provides confidence that our financial system can cope with major shocks, including a significant house price correction.

But dig deeper into the report and there is plenty to be concerned about in the context of higher interest rates, inflationary pressures and a slowing economy.

The Central Bank this week highlighted how a 30 per cent fall in house prices would send about 10 per cent of home loans into negative equity territory.

While it is not forecasting that specifically, the report did say that a sharp correction remains a "plausible outcome" and recent buyers would be most vulnerable.

The Reserve Bank also noted that many businesses are facing considerable cost pressures as well as effects of the Omicron outbreak.

Some of those businesses will presumably have mortgages secured against their owners' homes.

"Similar to households, debt-servicing costs for businesses are increasing with interest rates," the report said.

While this on its own may not cause financial strain, noting the low starting point of interest rates and general deleveraging by businesses over the past few years, when combined with other cost pressures and reduced spending, some businesses were likely to become stressed, it said.

"In particular, we are monitoring the construction and commercial property industries, given the potential for further stress to emerge over the coming year."

The Reserve Bank's report would have already been printed when earlier in the week news broke of the collapse of a sizeable commercial building business in Wellington.

Armstrong Downes Commercial went into liquidation on Monday, surprising some industry experts.

"It happened fast and it's a reflection of the unstable market. Everyone is busy, but the pressures at the financial end to make sure these things are still delivering," one property developer told the Herald.

There are fears this could be the first major casualty as the market draws back from development projects.

Two other reports out this week also underline the Reserve Bank's caution.

First came new data from credit agency Centrix, which showed demand for loans and credit cards had fallen sharply while those getting behind on their payments for existing debt is on the rise.

This was quite predictable given the aforementioned cost pressures Kiwis are experiencing.

But the extent of the pullback in credit card demand – down 35 per cent - is especially telling. Some of that can be attributable to the rise of buy now, pay later, but clearly inflation and interest rates are really starting to curb consumer spending.

In fact, Centrix's managing director said he'd never seen demand for credit cards fall so fast.

The second report came from Auckland's largest real estate agency, Barfoot & Thompson, which displayed a dramatic decline in sales volumes in April, with selling prices also dropping.

The agency sold just 615 residential properties in April, down 44 per cent from a year ago. Aside from April 2020, when New Zealand was in a Covid-19 lockdown, it was the lowest number for that month since 2008.

With the Reserve Bank forced to raise the official cash rate to try and curb inflation, recent buyers could face a stressful year ahead.

At least the labour market is tight and unemployment at record lows. But the patterns emerging indicate some big cracks in the economy right now.