Liam Dann: Banks raise the white flag on capital review

Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr during his press conference in Wellington after releasing the final decisions on their capital review. Photo / Mark Mitchell

COMMENT:

So a compromise, a truce and a new, safer era of banking in New Zealand begins.

The Reserve Bank softened its capital proposals, extending the time frame and broadening its definition of top tier capital, without backing down on the increase in total amount the big banks will need to hold in reserve.

Will it be enough to appease the angry Australian bank bosses, who were warning they might pull back their New Zealand business or take on the Reserve Bank in a legal challenge?

The answer appears to be yes.

Not as bad as expected, appears to have been good enough.

Banks shares rose on the Australian Stock Exchange after the announcement — as did the Kiwi dollar — offering a clear binary assessment of what the Reserve Bank yesterday called its final decision.

The bank responses were more subtle.

It is probably safe to say bank bosses still aren't thrilled about having to find extra capital to keep in reserve — funds that could have been going back to shareholders as dividends.

But they seem resigned to it now.

ANZ acting chief Antonia Watson said the bank had already started preparing for the change and reiterated a long-term commitment New Zealand.

"We've been in New Zealand since 1840 and prospered as the country has grown. We're here for the long haul and continue to aspire to be New Zealand's best bank."

ASB said the announcement provided certainty and committed to developing "implementation plans to meet the new capital requirements over the transition period".

The reality is that the upper echelons of the Australasian banking sector are in a considerably less bullish place than a year ago.

The Reserve Bank shocked them with capital proposals that seemed materially more onerous than similar changes by Reserve Bank of Australia. But bank bosses have scored numerous own goals in the past 12 months undermining their public support and eroding the moral high ground with a series of scandals and controversies that have seen three chief executives and two board chairs depart with unusual urgency.

Where there was push back yesterday it came from business and farming groups concerned that the burden of the extra capital requirements will fall upon their sectors in the form of tighter credit conditions and higher interest rates.

Looking at the current business cycle this seems like a reasonable concern. In fact banks have already tightened lending policy in these sectors.

If the banks make the steady transition they've said they will, and show the care for customers they've promised, then there is no need for any sudden shocks.

Interest rates to rise, makes a great headline.

Interest rates to rise marginally over a seven-year period, not so much.

The Reserve Bank says the capital changes will likely lift rates by 20 basis points.

Other economists believe it will be more like 30-60 basis points.

Regardless, those changes won't arrive like a fuel tax, with a sudden spike at a prescribed point in time.

They will wash through with all the other variables — inflation, trade wars, unemployment, business confidence and everything else the Reserve Bank assesses when it makes its OCR calls.

Rates may or may not be a lot higher in seven years (we should hope they aren't much lower) but the bank capital changes won't be a major driver of where they sit.

The Reserve Bank has promised to keep a close watch on how these changes affect rates and credit conditions.

We should hold them to that.

If they have underestimated the negative impacts then it is in their power to balance things with rate cuts.

In business certainty is important. Now we have that.

Adjustments will be made, a new baseline will be found. Life will go on and, hopefully, the new safe for a 1-in-200-year event rules will never be put to the test.