"We think that competition will heat up this year, which will be good for companies and investors," Daniell said. "But we don't think the market is large enough to sustain that many players. We expect consolidation or a shake-out."
He reckons the local market can support a maximum of two platforms.
So far, Snowball Effect appears to be winning the battle for dominance.
It has raised $5.5 million through five successful campaigns since August, while PledgeMe - which launched in September - had raised $1.5 million through four successful offers by 6pm last night.
Equitise, which launched on January 30, had raised $85,000 for Tourism Radio NZ by midday yesterday.
Equity crowdfunding, which became possible in this country last year through a once-in-a-generation overhaul of securities legislation, allows companies to issue shares to the public through online platforms. Companies can raise up to $2 million in any 12-month period.
Daniell said individual investments in Snowball Effect campaigns had ranged from $100 up to the $500,000 one unnamed investor had put into Aeronavics, a New Zealand drone maker that raised $1.5 million earlier this year.
Carter Holt float seen as plan B
The initial public offering market got a bit more interesting this week with the news that Graeme Hart's Rank Group might float Carter Holt Harvey in a deal that could value the formerly NZX-listed business at up to $1 billion.
Investment banks Credit Suisse and First NZ Capital are working on the building supplies firm's IPO, with Deutsche Craigs and Forsyth Barr also understood to have joined the action as joint lead managers.
Credit Suisse held meetings with Aussie fund managers regarding the deal last week, according to the Australian.
The newspaper also said the plan was to float the business - which has 5000 staff and annual revenue of roughly A$2.1 billion - on both the NZX and Australia's ASX in June or July.
Part of the pitch to investors is that Carter Holt generates most of its earnings across the Tasman and stands to benefit from a buoyant home building market in Australia, the Australian said.
Given the business has been on the block for a while - a trade sale was reportedly under consideration back in 2011 - investors will likely approach the deal with a healthy dose of scepticism.
"It's almost as if they've come to an IPO because they didn't get the interest or the price they were after [through a trade sale]," one market source told Stock Takes.
Carter Holt's been significantly slimmed down since Hart bought it in 2006 for $3.6 billion and delisted it from the stock exchange. At that time it was the fourth-largest stock on the NZX, but since then assets including its forest estate, property and dairy farms have been sold off.
The company operates the Carters Building Supplies businesses in New Zealand, as well as Woodproducts New Zealand and Woodproducts Australia. Brands include Pinex and Laserframe.
Should the IPO go ahead, Rank Group is expected to retain a cornerstone shareholding of around 30 per cent.
Why now?
The New Zealand Superannuation Fund's decision to suspend Milford Asset Management's $281 million active equities mandate last week has got market watchers scratching their heads.
The $29 billion Super Fund says the suspension will remain in place until the Financial Markets Authority's investigation into alleged market manipulation by the Auckland-based firm, which has more than $3 billion under management, is completed.
It must be a time consuming exercise, requiring all the funds previously looked after by Milford to be transferred back to the Super Fund, which will manage them internally for the time being.
So why do it now?
You can understand that the Super Fund, as a manager of public money, has particularly lofty governance principles it has to stick to. But news of the investigation broke in early February and in a separate statement last week the FMA said it expected to complete the final steps of the investigation in the next few weeks and make a public announcement "shortly thereafter".
"The Super Fund have come this far in the journey, why wouldn't they wait a little bit longer?" said one market source. "It's very odd."
The source, who didn't want to be named, said he had an element of sympathy for Milford as it seemed like the firm was being judged before the outcome of the investigation was released.
"It doesn't sound like a suspension to me. It sounds like a firing."
Awkward times
A Morningstar note highlights the difficult situation various market players face as the FMA investigation drags on. The independent research provider rates investment funds, including Milford's, and is in a bit of a pickle until the results of the probe are made public.
In the note, released this month, senior analyst Kathryn Young said Morningstar has had "numerous conversations" with Milford since the FMA's announcement last week, but with the investigation still open there was little information the regulator, or the fund manager, could provide.
"Given the frequency of FMA investigations, there is little information we can reliably draw from the fact of its existence or its duration," she said. "As a result, we have decided to maintain our existing ratings on Milford funds pending the conclusion of the investigation."
Young said Morningstar would re-evaluate the ratings when the outcome of the investigation was announced.
"We are monitoring the situation closely, not only as it pertains to the ratings we publish on Milford strategies but also for its importance to the New Zealand market overall."
Morningstar operates a five-point rating scale from gold down to negative. It has a silver rating on Milford's Active Growth, Active Growth KiwiSaver and Trans-Tasman funds. Milford's Conservative and Balanced KiwiSaver funds have a bronze rating.
