Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr. Photo / Mark Mitchell
Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr. Photo / Mark Mitchell
Editorial
EDITORIAL:
If one person has put his stamp on the New Zealand economy this year it is Adrian Orr in his first full year as Governor of the Reserve Bank. He is unlike anyone in that position before.
Under him, the bank has intervened in trading banks' risk management, orderingthem to hold more capital, and it has been equally unorthodox when setting interest rates.
Previous governors worked hard to be predictable, believing monetary policy works best when the financial sector can see the path ahead. They made speeches sharing the bank's view of trends in the national and international economies, and its published policy statements were documents of subtle analysis.
In August, he lowered the bank's official cash rate, the rate it charges trading banks for overnight settlements, by 50 basis points, a drop twice the size of normal reductions when monetary policy is being gradually loosened.
The dollar immediately fell more than a cent against the greenback and trading banks dropped their mortgage rates. This does not happen when a central bank has made its intentions clear.
When monetary policy is loosened, it means an economy is slowing and needs a boost. By lowering the rate to 1 per cent, the Reserve Bank reduced its room to move if recession threatens. The large cut left economic analysts in this country and abroad asking what the bank knew about the New Zealand economy that was not apparent to them.
New Zealand still had modest but steady growth and full employment. Business confidence had been down since the election, but Finance Minister Grant Robertson was earning credit by adhering to fiscal responsibility rules with healthy Budget surpluses and a debt reduction target.
We still had modest but steady growth and full employment. Photo / Jason Oxenham
When Orr announced the cut, he also urged the Government to relax the fiscal responsibility rules, since borrowing rates were low and the country had an "infrastructure deficit". He was not alone in that call, but his position carries extra weight and it was not clear Robertson appreciated the advice.
Nevertheless, two weeks before Christmas, when Robertson delivered his Budget Policy Statement, a preview of next year's Budget, a $6 billion surplus was projected to disappear in additional spending next year, leaving a small budget deficit and an increase in debt.
These would be justified if the country was in the economic doldrums with no growth, rising unemployment and a recession in prospect. But the Budget Policy Statement told a different story.
"New Zealand is growing faster than other advanced economies," the Treasury said, with "unemployment the lowest in a decade and growth in annual hourly earnings was the highest in a decade."
The only clouds on the horizon were from the US-China trade-war, Brexit and geopolitical tensions, which Orr also cited, as do central banks in countries doing less well. But those clouds have been around for years now and it has not rained. In fact, the US and China have just announcement an agreement.
