Business confidence slides to two-year low

ANZ chief economist Cameron Bagrie says the finger can be pointed at politics this month for the slide in business confidence. Photo / Chris Gorman

Business confidence continued to slide last month, to its lowest levels since June 2012 in ANZ's Business Outlook survey.

A net 13 per cent of respondents still expect the general business situation to improve over the coming year, a figure broadly in line with the long-term average, but that is down 11 points from August and 58 points from its peak last February.

"The finger can be pointed at politics this month," ANZ chief economist Cameron Bagrie said. "Businesses hate uncertainty. But when you ask businesses 'Does it really matter at the end of the day with regard to what you are going to be doing?' the answer is 'No'."

Other indicators from the survey were generally steady or better.

Firms expectations for their own activity were unchanged at a net 37 per cent positive.

Investment and hiring intentions both improved three points from August to a net 20 and 21 per cent positive, respectively.

Export intentions firmed.

A net 19 per cent expect to raise their prices over the next three months, down from a net 23 per cent last time, and inflation expectations also eased.

"Yes, the economy has passed its peak. The latest GDP figures confirm a deceleration in momentum," Bagrie said.

But that just meant the cycle was now maturing from strong growth rates off lows to moderate growth off good levels, he said.

"Little wonder sentiment remains healthy."

The economy still had its issues, he said. "The national balance sheet is far from pristine and we're mindful of high levels of leverage in some pockets. A sustained drop in the dairy payout over two years would be most unwelcome. Conversely, some structural metrics such as productivity are on the improve - dairying being a leading example."

The economy was not exhibiting the same build-up of nasty imbalances we had seen in previous cycle, Bagrie said, citing external debt and deficits, inflation and household savings rates.

"A lot of those statistics have improved, but they have gone from dreadful to being marginal. Household savings are positive, but barely positive. The current account deficit has gone from 9 per cent of GDP to 2.7 per cent. The property market is still overvalued," he said.

"But inflation is low and the Reserve Bank is on hold. The New Zealand dollar is adjusting and the Government's books are improving. That affords greater optionality."