Almanac not alone in predicting loss

NEW YORK - There's more than the so-called January barometer to indicate that the US stock market's performance this month may foreshadow losses for the year.

Companies such as General Mills that make consumer staples, including food, beverages and tobacco, are the year's best performers in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index. These stocks are often favoured amid market declines because of the companies' relatively steady growth in earnings.

Oil prices are advancing toward $50 a barrel, adding to concern that economic growth will slow more than forecast. Next to consumer staples, energy stocks such as Unocal are the year's leaders among 10 industry groups in the S&P 500.

Investors kicked off the year by pulling money from US equity funds. About $2.6 billion has been withdrawn in January, a month that has averaged inflows of $9.8 billion since 1987.

The S&P 500 dropped 1.4 per cent to 1167.87 last week amid disappointing forecasts from companies.

The Dow Jones slipped 1.6 per cent for the week, and the Nasdaq fell 2.6 per cent. The last time the Dow average and Nasdaq began a year with three weeks of losses was 1982.

Since 1950, a January loss in the S&P 500 has been followed by an annual decline a little more than half the time, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac.

- BLOOMBERG