Boeing forecasts demand for 38,050 new planes during the next 20 years. Photo / AP
Boeing forecasts demand for 38,050 new planes during the next 20 years, worth close to NZ$8 trillion.
The increase in the number of aircraft was an increase of 3.5 per cent from last year's forecast.
"The commercial airplane market continues to be strong and resilient," said Randy Tinseth, vice president of marketing for Boeing commercial airplanes.
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By the end of the forecast period, the commercial airplane fleet will double, from 21,600 airplanes in 2014 to 43,560 airplanes in 2034.
Passenger traffic will continue to grow at about a 4.9 per cent annual pace, near the historic trend line of 5 per cent. More than 7 billion passengers will fly by the end of the forecast period. Cargo traffic will grow at about 4.7 per cent per year, Boeing says.
The single-aisle market continues to be the fastest-growing, largest overall segment, requiring 26,730 airplanes over the coming two decades.
These aircraft carry up to 75 per cent of passengers on more than 70 per cent of the world's commercial aviation routes.
This sector is fuelled by growth in low-cost carriers and airlines in developing and emerging markets.
"At the heart of the single-aisle market are the Boeing 737-800 and the future 737 MAX 8," said Tinseth.
Airbus A320s also compete in this segment of the market.
About 35 per cent of the single-aisle market will go to low-cost carriers, Tinseth said.
We've seen two years of solid growth in the air cargo market and we expect that growth to continue.
Boeing forecasts that the widebody segment will require 8,830 new airplanes, led by small widebody airplanes in the 200- to 300-seat range such as the 787-8 and 787-9 Dreamliner. This year's forecast reflects a continued shift in demand from very large airplanes to efficient new twin-engine products such as the 787 and new 777X which is being developed.
While airline growth still accounts for the majority of new demand, a large and growing number of aging aircraft will require replacement. About 2 to 3 per cent of the existing fleet would require replacing each year.
"The 737 MAX, 777 and 787 are perfectly positioned to capture this important wave of replacement," Tinseth said.
The air cargo market continues to strengthen, and will drive demand of some 920 new airplanes over the 20-year forecast.
"We've seen two years of solid growth in the air cargo market and we expect that growth to continue," Tinseth said.
The Boeing figures mirror a recent outlook by Airbus. The Toulouse-based company is forecasting passenger growth of 4.7 per cent to 2033 and more than 31,000 passenger plane deliveries in that period.
The airline sold its last slots at Heathrow in 2020.