Queenstown Airport forecasts passenger numbers to hit pre-pandemic levels by 2025

Transtasman flights carry about 30 per cent of Queenstown Airports passengers. Photo / Qantas

Queenstown Airport expects passenger numbers will be back to pre-pandemic levels by 2025 and is forecasting revenue to double from current levels by then.

The airport was hammered by the pandemic with no international flights for most of the latest financial year and by far its largest group of domestic passengers - Aucklanders - were locked in their region for months because of Covid-19 restrictions.

There were no flights between Auckland and Queenstown, usually accounting for 70 per cent of domestic traffic, for 178 days, half of its total operating days.

Passenger numbers fell to a decade low but forecasts in a 10-year strategic plan show that in the 2025 financial year there should be 2.47 million passengers, 150,000 more than in 2019.

By 2032 passenger numbers could reach 3.2 million, according to the document released today.

The forecasts are based on the key assumptions that transtasman scheduled services will be operating throughout the period, that strong demand for domestic travel to and from Queenstown Airport continues and that the airport will operate within the existing noise boundaries.

Chief executive Glen Sowry said the plan needed to be a "living document" because of uncertainty around aviation.

"It's not intended to be a set-and-forget document. And while we wish that aviation was that stable and set, clearly it's not. What we're doing now is using this as the basis for a master plan process, which we are starting on now."

The plan assumes that the Christchurch International Airport plan for a rival airport at Tarris in Central Otago won't be developed by 2032.

He said one of the key decisions taken was to plan for moderate and sustainable growth and not to seek an expansion to the existing Queenstown Airport noise boundaries.

"This represents a shift in our strategy and considers community feedback as well as our company's sustainability strategy.

"Advances in aircraft technology, including Air New Zealand's introduction of NEO (New Engine Option) powered A320 and A321 aircraft means quieter planes flying into Queenstown which allowed the potential to manage future growth within our noise boundaries," said Sowry.

The airport is sensitive to criticism of its role in bringing "overtourism" something that had sparked a backlash in the two to three years before the pandemic hit. Sowry said there was continued debate on what is the right number of visitors.

Before the pandemic between 30 per cent and 40 per cent of visitors arrived through the airport so while an important enabler of tourism, most people arrived by road.

About 30 per cent of all traffic is international from Australia. Jetstar, Qantas and Air New Zealand have resumed flights across the Tasman and Virgin Australia will in November start up flights into Queenstown, its only New Zealand destination.

The plan states that the current terminal cannot "comfortably" accommodate passengers beyond 2019 levels and a terminal upgrade will be phased to meet projected increases in passenger movements during the coming decade.

Sowry said that during the past three years the airport had invested $10 million in new security screening facilities, doubling the size of the area for Aviation Security.

In the year to June 30 after-tax profit was down 34 per cent to $1.1m as revenue slid to $26.8m. In its strategy document it is forecasting net profit of $6.1m in the current year, climbing steeply to just under $20m in 2025. Long term, it is forecasting a $40m profit in 2032.

The airport is 25 per cent owned by Auckland International Airport with Queenstown Lakes District Council owning 75 per cent.