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CANBERRA - The dust has yet to settle from the crash of the A$11.1 billion Qantas takeover attempt, as the bidding consortium struggles to prove it may have crossed the acceptance line in time, despite earlier statements admitting failure.
And if Australian Partners Australia cannot convince regulators of this, it may continue its campaign to win Australia's national carrier through another offer - at the same price as its earlier failed bid.
But in an ever-twisting drama embracing even the machinations of giant United States hedge funds, analysts doubt that APA has much chance of reviving the present takeover or of making another offer for at least several months.
Treasurer Peter Costello yesterday declared the bid dead and said any new takeover attempt would have to start from scratch, including getting approval from the Foreign Investment Review Board.
Costello also added weight to growing speculation about the fate of Qantas chairwoman Margaret Jackson and other members of the board who supported the APA offer.
"The board recommended this offer," he said.
"The shareholders, or a majority of the shareholders, did not accept the offer and I think the board will have to make a statement as to where they stand and what they intend to do in relation to the company."
On Friday night APA admitted failure after the bid closed at 7pm, only to have its hopes revived five hours later when US billionaire corporate raider Samuel Heyman offered APA shares amounting to 4.96 per cent of the airline, sufficient to tip the bid over the 50 per cent trigger point.
But yesterday APA said it may have passed the trigger point before the Friday night deadline, allowing it to keep its offer open for a further two weeks.
The Takeovers Panel said APA "should clarify whether this is the situation or not as soon as possible".
"This is not a matter for the Takeovers Panel to determine."
Trading in Qantas shares was suspended until this morning to allow the confusion over APA's latest claim to be resolved.
Unions have welcomed the failure of the APA bid, but concern remains over the deal as details emerge of a high-stakes gamble by international hedge funds behind the last-minute collapse of the consortium's hopes of gaining 50 per cent of Qantas stock.
If APA had crossed that line it would have triggered an automatic two-week extension of the offer, giving the consortium time to try to pick up the extra shares needed for the bid's required 70 per cent acceptance level.
Appeals over the weekend to the Takeovers Panel and the Australian Securities and Investment Commission to allow Heyman's shares to be included were not successful.
Heyman appears to have cost himself and other hedge funds dearly.
Reports detailing his role in the nail-biting conclusion to the bid cite manoeuvres by Heyman's fund and two others, Polygon Investment Partners and Highbridge Capital Management.
Between them they had gained about 30 per cent of Qantas at about A$5.15 a share.
APA offered A$5.45 a share, a price many considered undervalued the airline because of sharp rises in international airline stocks and good profit projections for Qantas.
Australian newspapers yesterday reported that the US funds agreed to sell APA sufficient shares to pass the 50 per cent mark, allowing them to trade very profitably over the following two weeks.
But Heyman reportedly believed APA already had enough shares - despite assurances to the contrary and urgent appeals from bid leader Macquarie Bank - and held his back until it was too late.
Estimates of the losses to the funds if Qantas shares fall when trading resumes run up to A$1 billion.
Qantas shares last closed at A$5.38.
Yesterday, APA remained determined to keep its bid alive.
The consortium initially accepted the takeover umpire's weekend veto on Heyman's shares and said that in view of the fact that a majority of shareholders by number - and value, including Heyman's late acceptance - it was exploring alternatives.
These included the possibility of a new offer for Qantas at A$5.45 a share.
"APA always intended to support the existing Qantas management team to achieve their goals to strengthen and grow the airline," APA said. "That remains the case."
