KEY POINTS:
It's D-Day for the Canadian bid to buy a 40 per cent stake in Auckland International Airport but those hanging out for the verdict could be in for a long wait.
The late flood of shareholder returns today means unless clear cut trends emerge by late afternoon it is possible the result of the vote - the important part of the deal - won't be known until tomorrow.
As of this morning the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board had over 38 per cent of shares in its grasp but the vote on whether the deal should go ahead has not been updated.
The Shareholders Association said the Government's interference had prompted "Mum and Dad" investors to jump ship and vote in favour of the CPP bid.
In early returns the approval vote has been running overwhelmingly in the CPP's favour - yesterday they were up around 68 per cent but that was before the airport's biggest single shareholder, the Auckland City Council with 13 per cent had confirmed its view the Canadians should be sent packing and cast its vote accordingly.
Auckland City mayor John Banks reckons the CPP brings bags of money, plenty of goodwill but very little else in helping make the airport fly.
Manukau City with 10 per cent is also staunchly opposed and its formal rejection of the offer doesn't yet appear to have flowed into the voting figures.
So the approval vote will get even closer as the opponents' ballots flow in. Number crunchers in both camps say it will come down the wire.
The CPP turned up in May last year as local and international interest in buying into one of New Zealand's most lucrative utility companies started to intensify.
A 49 per cent offer was deemed a dead duck but after a bid by Dubai's airport company was rejected, the Canadians came back with their 40 per cent partial takeover offer with a $3.65 a share offer looking sweeter by the week as the sharemarket slid. The councils would have been in line for windfall returns under tax restructuring proposed in the second part of the deal.
Enter Finance Minister Michael Cullen who on February 25 cut off the tax loophole. The CPP barely flinched, publicly at least, and when Cullen came back a week later with his bombshell to restrict foreign ownership of strategic assets the Canadians took it on the chin again. They didn't complain just cut back their voting influence in an attempt to assuage the Government.
If the do get over the line with shareholders it will be up to ministers David Parker and Clayton Cosgrove to make the call. If it's a knock back the ever tenacious CPP will then weigh up whether to pursue the matter through the courts.
Today the Canadians' representatives, the airport and the NZX are nutting out the logistics of how the call will be made.
If the suspense is prolonged until tomorrow it would fitting for this deal which has had more twists and turns than an episode of Lost.
