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It's been hard work for analysts and investors trying to second guess what's going on behind the scenes at Auckland International Airport.
One of the issues confusing things seems to have been the separate involvement of Macquarie Airports and Macquarie Bank.
Word this week was that Macquarie Airports - while initially interested - has pulled back from the sale process because the airport looks too pricey for its investment mandate. Macquarie Bank on the other hand is understood to still be involved with other parties.
Macquarie Airports is an ASX listed fund which - while owned in part by Macquarie Bank - operates as a separate business.
As mentioned last week, Ferrovial - or its subsidiary BAA - is also believed to have dropped out of the process because the price was looking too high.
Auckland Airport shares closed at $3.28 yesterday.
Oil exposure
After a 12-month respite, world oil prices are back at levels that will be starting to make market-watchers nervous.
The price is currently just short of record highs at about US$76.53 a barrel.
A Goldman Sachs JBWere report this week picked that we could see oil at US$95 a barrel by the end of the year. (Cleverly, the report avoided picking US$100, a figure that has been regularly forecast but never reached in the past five years.) Locally oil dependent stocks are buffered to a certain extent by the high dollar.
The big transport companies such as Freightways, Mainfreight and Air New Zealand are most vulnerable to fuel price spikes. Resins manufacturer Nuplex also relies on oil.
Point of contact
A year ago Stock Takes made a date - meet back in 12 months and take a look at the Contact Energy share price.
After the failed bid by Origin to "merge" with Contact Energy, embattled directors had sent shareholders a letter to remind them how much value had been destroyed by not going through with the merger. Those shareholders that had opposed the deal - notably Simon Botherway and Paul Glass at Brook - had done so because they felt the deal didn't recognise the ongoing long term value of the company.
So here we are. Not exactly long term.
In fact, Contact closed at a record high of $9.35 yesterday, up about 30 per cent - or $1.25 billion - on its close of 12 months ago. Not a bad return in a market that has been trading sideways for the last six months. This provides strong evidence that last year's deal was not good enough.
EU battle
Infratil is embroiled in an interesting airport controversy in Germany.
The European Commission last week opened formal proceedings against Lubeck airport - in which Infratil is the largest shareholder. The EU alleges the airport has received illegal state aid from the German Government.
Infratil Airports - which also owns Wellington, Glasgow Prestwick and Luton airports - denies the allegations and says the EU's persistence in pursuing the case sends a concerning message to private airport investors in Europe.
"One has to ask whether the commission is concerned with advancing competition and market reform or just the interests of influential participants in the German aviation market," it said.
The political stoush is no doubt a distraction for Lubeck management. Of the three European airports, it is in the best position to expand passenger services. It has 4.5 million people living less than an hour away but faces a challenge to overcome the prevailing German political attitude to private airports.
The dispute won't be financially material to Infratil, European airports represent just a tiny part of its investment portfolio - now dominated by a 50.5 per cent stake in Trustpower.
And Infratil shares have quietly risen nearly 20 per cent this year to make the stock one of the best performers in what is shaping up as pretty average year for the market. Infratil closed at $3.12.
Excluding the takeover premiums propping up Tourism Holdings and Auckland Airport, Infratil rates in the top three best performers of the year behind Air New Zealand and Michael Hill.
Funds fun
Peter Huljich (son of rich lister Chris and brother of former Miss New Zealand Rachel) is understood to be planning a boutique investment fund to take advantage of the post-KiwiSaver demand.
Huljich is a director of New Zealand Finance, which has a controlling stake in Mike Pero Mortgages. The fund will start next month by invitation only. Equity Partners - the George Kerr-owned group that has started an infrastructure fund with a stake in London's Thames Water - is also tipped to be planning another fund, focusing on the telco sector.
Share buybacks
A share buyback is usually a good way for a company to give its stock a bit of a boost. But in the volatile 2007 market it seems even that is no longer a sure bet.
Three buybacks currently under way - F&P Healthcare, Dorchester Pacific and ING Property Trust - have all struggled to gain any traction in the past few weeks.
Swimming against the tide of the currency, F&P Healthcare - which is seeking up to 12 million shares in the six months to September - has seen its price fall about 10c despite the buyback of more than 1.5 million shares since June. Dorchester presents presumably a somewhat less than rosy view for investors in the finance sector right now. Its shares have traded down about 30c since it began a buyback programme in June - which could see it take back 5 per cent of its shares.
And up against a property market at the top of the cycle (if not over the peak) ING Property Trust is down 6c despite buying on market since early June.
The timing of these buybacks isn't so bad. If these companies genuinely believe they are undervalued and have the balance sheet to buy then the lower the price the better for those shareholders who stay in.
But if it is being done to give the shares a short term lift then it is not working.
MediaWorks
The share price for TV3 owners MediaWorks hasn't dropped back since the close of the Ironbridge takeover offer and was steady at $2.45 yesterday.
Ironbridge ended up with 82.6 per cent stake in MediaWorks - 7.4 per cent short of the level needed to take it off-market.
The stubbornly elevated price is likely due to expectations that another Ironbridge offer will be made at some point to mop up the remaining shares.
But, says Rodney Deacon at Goldman Sachs JBWere, there is a very real risk that Ironbridge may choose to bide its time and look to just get on with its own strategy for re-engineering the balance sheet.
That could mean the end of dividends as well as other material impacts on earnings and valuations.
Short term it is likely to diminish the attractiveness of holding MediaWorks shares and their value would likely head back towards a discounted cashflow valuation of $2.09, Deacon warns.
He has also reduced earnings forecasts for the company.
There are many one-off changes this year contributing to the forecast of a cut in net profit by 18 per cent to $21.6 million.
These include the $3 million payment to chief executive Brent Impey (a clause in his contract relating to takeovers), a $2.3 million charge for the cessation of the employee share ownership plan and incentive payments to retain senior management of more $1.375 million.
Deacon has a short term "market perform" recommendation on the stock and a long term "hold".
