KEY POINTS:
The good news for air travellers is that airport queues could soon become a thing of the past. The bad news is you might have to pack your own sandwiches.
Air travel is rapidly evolving down two distinct flight paths - more comfort and luxury for the long haul and a more basic, user-pays service on the short hauls, says Air New Zealand chief executive Rob Fyfe.
He is hoping to put the national carrier in a strong position that can take advantage of both trends.
With its new fleet of Boeing 777 and 787 planes on its way, the airline is being remodelled to be more flexible and responsive to passenger needs, says Fyfe.
Last year the airline shifted its Asian long-haul routes north, axing flights to Singapore in favour of Hong Kong.
It also tried - but failed - to set up a code-share agreement on the Tasman with Qantas. The Australian competition regulator knocked back that proposal, forcing an Air New Zealand rethink on the route.
A review of Tasman operations is ongoing but Fyfe's vision for the next 10 to 15 years provides some insight into the direction the airline could be heading.
The Tasman will be increasingly treated as an extension of domestic routes. That means we are likely to see the kind of user-pays environment now common in Europe.
Last week, Air New Zealand said it planned to cut its cheapest domestic airfares by as much as 26 per cent. Looking ahead, ticket prices should drop even further but airlines will look to make money in other areas.
"It's about bringing seat prices down but more importantly it's about having people pay for what they want," says Fyfe. "So if I don't want a meal - or I don't want an airline meal - I might want to bring some of my own food."
The same approach could be applied to services such as airpoints, lounge facilities and luggage. "If I don't want to put any bags in the hold, I don't have to pay for it. And if I do want to do those things, I pay what it truly costs. So you don't have one customer cross-subsidising another customer."
Travellers may even be expected to take control of their own entertainment needs. "If you go forward the next 10-15 years the vast majority of people will be carrying their own personal entertainment devices. So you won't see the seat-back TV screens on aircraft. You might have a content system that allows you to plug in your own personal entertainment device."
If short flights are destined to head down-market then the opposite looks likely to be the case for long haul.
"The focus for long haul will be on even cleverer devices to improve comfort levels for passengers. When you sit on an aircraft you are in essence renting space for a period of time. The space that you rent won't get any larger per se but we'll find better ways - as we have with our new business-class seats - to utilise it."
As you can't get much more comfortable than the full bed services already offered in first class, Fyfe is expecting that all the innovation in customer comfort is going to come in the economy cabin.
While the airline will probably continue making incremental improvements there are some more radical ideas being considered around the world.
"There are some airlines playing around with the notion of bunks," says Fyfe. "So where you are doing an overnight flight all the seats are configured as bunks because people prefer to lie down rather than sit up."
Fyfe is optimistic that despite the increased security measures of the past five years, the hassle of boarding a plane will decrease.
"There is still a lot of process that sits on board a plane versus getting on a bus. And I suspect a lot of that will get simplified," he says. "I've seen some airlines overseas where you can buy 10-trip tickets just like you would for a bus."
On the domestic and short-haul routes Fyfe is predicting bigger changes on the ground than in the air.
"It will be about how you move through the airport, how you get on board the aircraft and how we deal with your bags, what the lounge experience is.
"I think in that timeframe we'll get to the stage where your bags have some kind of radio frequency tag on them so when you come to the airport you can just walk up, put your bag straight on the conveyor belt and the system will read the ID tag. It will be automatically weighed. You'll complete all the security questions online or you'll be scanned biologically. You'll see that queuing regime will disappear."
Fyfe also expects Air New Zealand's markets to change, but not radically. "The UK is our second biggest market today but 10 to 15 years from now it may be third because China may overtake it," he says. "Australia will still be our biggest market and the UK, US and Europe will be important, but South America will have increased. I suspect we may even see an increase from Africa."
And 10 years from now will the company still be owned by the Government?
"The Government will still have a stake in the airline," Fyfe says. "It's anyone's guess what the stake will be. Trade and travel so much underpin the value of the economy that I would be surprised if in that time the Government has wanted to extricate itself. They're certainly well in the money at the moment."
