Summer hot for NZ trade

The trade balance continued to improve last month.

Instead of the deficit economists had expected, there was a $269 million surplus as the country exported $1.09 worth of goods for every dollar of imports. It is the best ratio for any January in the past 20 years.

It brought the annual trade deficit down to $178 million, compared with an average of $3.6 billion over the previous 10 years.

"This represents a dramatic turnaround in New Zealand's trade position over the past year, underscored by solid agricultural export performance and weak import demand," ASB economist Jane Turner said.

"Over 2010 we expect these trends to begin to reverse. Nonetheless, this improvement creates a solid starting point, which should flow through to a smaller current account deficit in 2010."

For the eighth month in a row exports were lower than the same month a year earlier. This time it was a relatively modest $19 million or 0.6 per cent less.

That was despite a $148 million rise in oil exports as production from the Kupe field kicked in.

Meat, casein and cereal exports were down; dairy products (apart from casein) and forest products were up.

"The pick-up in dairy prices observed in spot markets over the second half of 2010 are now likely to be flowing though to dairy export receipts," Turner said.

A firm recovery in demand in Asia was underpinning a recovery in forestry exports after some challenging years, she said.

Meat exports are below those of a year ago "but a recent pick-up in meat prices globally should help improve revenues over the next few months".

Imports have been gently rising since September, though they remain about 22 per cent below their peak in August 2008.

Imports of capital goods were down $156 million or 26 per cent on January last year, following consistent falls throughout 2009, Statistics New Zealand said. Consumer goods imports also fell, $89 million or 11 per cent.