Pioneering spirit will help Kiwis 'create the new'

Gerald Celente talks about the rise of 'simplicity hip' in the US where downsizing is replacing the 'bigger is better' approach. Picture / Martin Sykes

It's his business to predict the future and, yesterday, American trends forecaster Gerald Celente had some tips on where to create niche markets in the years ahead.

The man who forecast the rise of gourmet coffees, organic foods and the dot.com crash sees ancient Maori medicines, "clean food" and novel distance learning programmes as areas where New Zealand can do things others can't.

And despite a small population, Celente believes this country can succeed because it still has the pioneering spirit that the United States has lost.

"Bigger isn't better. The mind is the key," he said.

"Create the new because the US is only creating the old."

The founder and director of the US Trends Research Institute spoke in Auckland last night in the first of three Better by Design conferences around the country this week.

Celente's aim was to help exporters understand what key business and consumer trends will be in coming years and the niche markets they should be designing products and services for.

Celente's institute is now predicting the rise of "simplicity hip" for the average US family with downsizing in cars, houses and extravagances, but with a strong requirement for quality and styles which are simple, reliable and can be repaired - not trashed - when broken.

The New Yorker was attracted to New Zealand because it was one of few nations devoting money and resources into looking ahead.

"I come from a country living in the past. They think it's the end of World War II and the rest of the world is looking for nylon stockings and Hershey bars," he said.

"You have to realise less than 20 per cent of American people have passports. They haven't been anywhere.

"So it's refreshing for me to see desire among a nation that's saying, we have to be on the leading edge."

New Zealanders came across as free thinkers who were not restricted by the country's borders.

"And, because of their isolation, there's a great desire in people to go to other places and see other things, so that opens up their mind and gives global vision."

With the threat of pandemics such as bird flu, Sars and mad cow disease, New Zealand could be known for "clean food" beyond organic.

But Celente cautioned: "A slogan I'd like to pass on to the people, businesses and Government in New Zealand - don't let your quality down."

Wellness products and alternative medicines were another area New Zealand could capitalise on.

"How about the best of the past - Maori medicine. You have an ancient culture. Bring back the best of what they have."

Most of the world's teaching systems were throwbacks from the 19th century.

"Why doesn't New Zealand consider developing the new distance learning programmes from home school through to university, to augment what already does exist?"

Celente saw New Zealand becoming a safe haven, far away from some of the world's major problems.

This could benefit the national banking system.

"I think this could become a banking centre - the Switzerland of the Pacific."

Solutions for the world's traffic and energy woes could also be found here.

"Why not call a summit in New Zealand to explore the options for new alternative energy solutions for the 21st century. Not only does that give you great worldwide press, it gets you investor interest, IPOs and venture capital."