Liam Dann writes that fast growth and a grape glut are serious threats to New Zealand's global status.
Along with Christian celebrations this time of year is still entwined with Northern Hemisphere rites of Spring - bunnies and eggs and so forth.
But that part of the holiday season makes little sense on this side of the world.
Here it is harvest time. A time of mixed emotions for our ancestors who marked it with darker ceremonies like Halloween. The joys of autumn abundance came tinged with fear about producing enough to survive a long, cold winter. What an odd thing the problem of overproduction would seem to the pre-industrial world.
But for the wine industry - and to some extent all of our food producers - a bumper harvest or two can present serious threat.
New Zealand's status as a first world food producer is dependent on our ability to command a premium price for produce.
Unfortunately it doesn't matter how good our products are, if we make more than the world can consume in a year then the most basic law of economics will take its toll.
When supply outstrips demand prices fall. When prices fall so do consumer perceptions and expectations. Building a premium is hard work, rebuilding one is likely to be even harder.
The expansion of the wine industry has been staggering. From $125 million to nearly $1 billion in 10 years. That speed has given the major players little time to formulate a coherent strategy as to how they will migrate the industry from a fashionable niche player to something sustainable. The $1 billion dollar mark was an admirable goal - but now what?
Export industries such as dairying, kiwifruit and apples have battled through long, difficult and often highly divisive processes to get some control of their place in the global market.
A big season for all of the above can be managed to a degree because the single desk marketing strategy ensures that local growers won't undercut each other.
The meat industry has never quite had the same success in uniting and suffers for it.
In this country the wine industry has a short history as a major economic force. It has evolved from the vineyard up and is still highly fragmented. The biggest wineries such as Montana gained enough scale to be taken over by foreign corporations. Others such as Delegats have found a mid-tier position listed on the NZX. There are many others that are much smaller and rely even more on quality over quantity to get themselves noticed in export markets.
Finding a strategy that fits the industry as a whole, when the business models of the various players are so different, is not going to be easy.
But it does at least seem that the major players have recognised the risks. Let's hope they can start actively working on the solutions without too much conflict. If they don't and New Zealand wine does end up losing its high end niche then it will be like watching a slow-motion trainwreck.
www.twitter.com/liamdann
