KEY POINTS:
What on earth did Brazilian Foreign Minister Celso Amorim really think of all the political antics around Winston Peters when he visited Auckland last week to talk turkey on trade?
Amorim was talking to all the major players as negotiations over Peters' fate were finalised on Friday.
He
praised the "very good arrangement" he struck with his now stood down counterpart for working holiday exchanges.
And he was suitably diplomatic when I quizzed him about Peters during an interview at Auckland's SkyCity hotel in the very room Helen Clark later used when she announced that she would take over the New Zealand Foreign Minister's portfolios while the Serious Fraud Office inquiry into New Zealand First political donations plays out.
But Amorim's main game was soliciting New Zealand's support to try to get a prospective global trade agreement negotiated at the World Trade Organisation (WTO) before this year's election in the United States.
It's a critical time because if a prospective WTO deal isn't ready before the US goes to the polls in early November, there is a big risk that nothing major will occur for at least another two to three years.
If Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama wins the November 4 election, this may well herald in a new protectionist era in the US, which will seriously inhibit New Zealand's efforts to grow international trade.
The WTO deal might seem eye-glazing stuff, but it is potentially worth more than $1 billion a year for us in additional export income.
This is because tariff barriers will be reduced in some of New Zealand's prime export destinations, particularly for agricultural exports. And quota arrangements that limit the amount of tariff-free or reduced-tariff imports will be liberalised.
The Brazilian foreign minister is a major player in world trade. He's the founder-convenor of the powerful G20 group of big developing countries and is on a tour trying to raise support to get key countries back to the WTO's headquarters in Geneva next month to try to settle a major outstanding issue over safeguard mechanisms.
Amorim believes there is a "narrow window" of about four weeks to make a breakthrough.
He lists three critical issues:
The need for political will so that individual countries put self-interest to one side so the multilateral system can prevail.
A breakthrough in the areas where there is still some deep technical work to be done.
Putting aside self-deception so that countries settle for a realistic outcome.
A successful deal would give a tremendous fillip to world trade at a time when confidence has been shattered by the impact of the international credit crunch and property slump.
In essence, US and European farm subsidies would be reduced, export subsidies - particularly in Europe - would be scrapped, and there would be more ready access to the markets for industrial goods in the major developing countries.
Amorim is confident if a bare-bones deal can be stitched up next month, it is unlikely the next US administration of whatever stripe would knock it back.
Amorim pays tribute to New Zealand's efforts as a small - but valuable - player in world trade talks. Not in the first "concentric circle" where the big players such as the US, Europe, China, India and Brazil play, but in the next circle where prospective deals "get socialised" by trade ministers such as Phil Goff.
The Brazilian minister is also promoting an arrangement that would link the Australia-New Zealand Closer Economic Relations Free Trade Agreement (commonly known as CER) and the Mercosur trade bloc comprising Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay, with Venezuela's membership pending. Mercosur has five associate members - Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru.
Goff, however, has played down the prospect and is focused on potentially large gains elsewhere.
He has just finished negotiating a New Zealand-Australia free trade deal with the Asean bloc.
The Asean deal appears to be a good one.
It's a little-known fact, but the Asean market ranks number three in New Zealand trade taking $4.6 billion in exports and growing at 24 per cent a year. The deal will take precedence over the terms in earlier bilateral deals that New Zealand signed with countries such as Thailand.
It means 99 per cent of tariffs (facing New Zealand exporters) will be wiped within 12 years. This is good news for Kiwi exporters to the 10-strong South-East Asian bloc that contains countries ranging from Indonesia and Singapore to Myanmar.
Potentially, it is worth much more than the recent China free trade deal that New Zealand stitched up.
