Dairy leads commodity charge

Dairy prices rose 22 per cent last month. Photo / Sarah Ivey

A surge in dairy prices helped boost an index which measures New Zealand's major export commodities by 10.5 per cent last month - its second largest monthly increase since the index began in 1986.

The ANZ Commodity Price Index rose to 206 points - a 39 per cent increase on the low it reached in February and 17 per cent up on this time last year.

ANZ economist Steve Edwards said the strong run on milk prices had been the main driver but prices had also increased in seven other commodities.

Dairy prices rose 22 per cent in November, up 75 per cent from the February low although they remain more than 30 per cent down on the highs reached in 2007.

Edwards said it was not surprising the index had gone up by so much given the rise in dairy prices and that dairy made up 40 per cent of the index.

But it was a mixed picture for New Zealand's second and third most exported commodities. Lamb, which makes up 13 per cent of the index, fell 1.4 per cent in November, while beef, weighted to 9 per cent, was up around 4 per cent.

Edwards said in October lamb had the highest price on record.

"It's just come off a bit, but it's still at an elevated level."

Over the year both lamb and beef prices were up 12 per cent. Edwards said the beef price rise was driven by steady demand out of the United States where most of New Zealand's meat exports were sent.

Beef prices were now back at the same level as they were two years ago, before the global financial crisis hit.

"It's not a bad place to be considering we have been through one of the worst recessions in history."

Kiwifruit prices were unchanged while sawn timber prices were up between 3 per cent and 4.5 per cent. Wool, which makes up just 3.5 per cent of the index, had the highest increase after dairy, rising 8.8 per cent, a return to levels seen a year ago.

"It's sprung back from a depressed level," Edwards said.

Wood pulp, aluminium, skins and log prices also rose. Edwards said the rise in eight out of the 14 commodities showed confidence was coming back to the market.

"People are starting to look forward rather than back."

A slight drop in the New Zealand dollar last month also helped exporters. The NZ Dollar Commodity Price Index rose 11.7 per cent in November - the strongest monthly gain since the series started.

Edwards said he was encouraging to see the dollar fall a bit as previous gains in the index had been offset by the kiwi.

He continued to see a drop in the dollar but said it was hard to predict.

"It can move in quite a volatile pattern once investors get involved. But we are seeing a retraction from where it is at the moment."

Edwards expected the dollar to come under pressure from investors flocking to the Australian dollar after interest rate rises.

EXPORT MOVES
ANZ Commodity Price Index, November

Dairy: +22 per cent
Wool: +8.8 per cent
Logs: +0.7 per cent
Lamb: -1.4 per cent
Venison: -0.7 per cent
Seafood: -0.3 per cent
Kiwifruit: unchanged
Apples: unchanged