Australian farm export earnings picked to rise

CANBERRA - Farm export earnings are expected to rise over the next two years, despite the ongoing effects of the global financial crisis, a report from Australia's commodities forecaster says.

But the Australian Bureau of Agriculture Resource Economics (ABARE) also forecasts commodities exports will fall by 17 per cent to A$162 billion ($209 billion) in 2009-10.

The drop comes after an estimated rise of 33 per cent to A$196 billion in 2008-09.

However the fall is expected to be shortlived with total commodity export earnings projected to start climbing from 2010-11 where the figure is likely to top A$175 billion by 2013-14.

Growth in China and India will be a major factor for supporting Australia's energy and minerals commodity demand over the medium term.

The report says the fall in the total value of commodity exports is reflected by a forecast decline of 22 per cent in export earnings from mineral resources to A$126 billion in 2009-10 from A$161 billion in 2008-09.

Farm exports are likely to increase by 12 per cent to A$30.8 billion in 2008-09 and are forecast to rise further by another 4 per cent to A$32.1 billion in 2009-10.

Crops that are likely to have an increase in export earnings for 2009-10 include wheat, barley, canola, lupins, peas, raw cotton, sugar and lamb.

"A substantial increase in crop production combined with a significant depreciation of the Australian dollar is expected to support farm export earnings in the short term," ABARE executive director Phillip Glyde said.

Export earnings forecast for 2009-10 in the energy and minerals sector are also expected to fall by 34 per cent to $51 billion in 2009-10, driven by lower forecast prices for oil and coal.

Metals and minerals will also see a decline of 11 per cent to A$75 billion in 2009-10, due in large part to a drop in Australian iron ore prices.

- AAP