Leaders in the agri-business sector fear the loss of the traditional political consensus favouring free trade agreements if there's a change of government, but are equally fearful that a Labour-Greens coalition will see heavier regulation against environmental harm and will start charging farmers to use water and other "natural capital", says the annual KPMG Agri-Business Agenda publication.
While enthusiastic about Labour's research and development tax breaks, which could help develop new technologies to improve environmental outcomes, farming and food sector leaders fear the lack of visible progress towards environmental goals could see what the report coyly refers to as "a new coalition government" impose new costs and regulation on the industry to force a faster clean-up.
"The need for the primary sector to improve its performance around core sustainability issues, such as water quality and nutrient management, is not disputed," KPMG's global head of agri-business, Ian Proudfoot, writes following a series of "roundtable" meetings and surveys with sector leaders around the country.
"While significant investment has been made to address these issues, the benefits are not immediately apparent. There is a concern that the lack of runs on the scoreboard may result in a new coalition government increasing the regulation on the industry and imposing charging mechanisms for the use of natural capital."
A major concern is the prospect that the "time the industry needs to resolve its challenges may be reduced or completely removed."