New Zealand's commodity prices may be nearing a peak after hitting record highs last month, the latest ANZ world commodity price index suggests.
The index rose 0.3 per cent in September compared with August, and was up 22.2 per cent on September last year. It was the 15th consecutive monthly gain for the index, which has risen 34.6 per cent from July 2002.
ANZ chief economist John Bolsover said the recovery in world commodity prices was led by dairy, beef and lamb. The dairy index was at its highest level since April 1996, and export prices for beef and lamb were at record levels for the 18-year history of the index.
"Together, these products are very influential as they account for over half of commodity exports and around one-third of New Zealand's total merchandise exports," Mr Bolsover said.
Seven commodities increased - wool, beef, venison, dairy, seafood, aluminium and kiwifruit - and six fell: lamb, skins, apples, logs, sawn timber and wood pulp.
Kiwifruit posted the strongest individual increase of 2.5 per cent in September, and was up 4.2 per cent on the year earlier. An unexpected surge in beef prices in August was consolidated in September, but the beef index remained 36 per cent above the average for its 18-year history, and was up 74 per cent on lows hit in June last year.
Tight beef supplies from the US and Australia and a ban on Canadian beef pushed up prices. US beef supplies were expected to remain tight to the 2006 season, but Bolsover said the gloss might come off prices as some restrictions on the market were lifted, in particular that on Canadian beef imports into the US.
- NZPA
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