As we say goodbye to 2024 and welcome in 2025, it’s a good time to catch up on the very best of some of the Herald columnists we enjoyed reading over the last 12 months. From politics to business, these are some of the voices and views our audience loved
Christopher Luxon’s worst honeymoon of any elected Prime Minister - Richard Prebble
Opinion by Richard PrebbleLearn more
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Luxon was elected PM polling 35 per cent. Clark, Key and Ardern after becoming Prime Minister all received a 10 per cent plus bounce in the poll. Luxon had no honeymoon. His polling had dropped to 30 per cent by Christmas. It is now down over 10 per cent from its peak. It is no comfort he is just ahead of Chris Hipkins. To win, Labour will replace Hipkins.
Political scientists speculate that Luxon’s polling may be affected by the Treaty issue or the smokefree repeal or Act and New Zealand First taking his limelight
A Prime Minister who took notice of polls would have polled to find out why he is not connecting. Read more >
No court has ever said the Treaty created a legal partnership - February 7, 2024
During the holidays my 8-year-old grandson wanted to go on a rollercoaster. He screamed the whole way. As we got off, he said “let’s do it again”.
Thousands marched to save the Treaty. Politicians competed to scare them. Everyone knows that, like the rollercoaster, the Treaty is in no danger. Many are going home today saying “let’s do it again”.
There are serious issues with Act’s principles of the Treaty bill but not for the reasons given at Waitangi. Laws are not what is passed by MPs in Parliament; laws are what is passed by Parliament as interpreted by the courts. Courts can say a law means the opposite of what any MP intended.
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Far from abolishing the Treaty, David Seymour’s bill makes the Treaty law.
A chief justice once ruled the Treaty was a nullity. Another chief justice gave a completely different ruling. Same document, different interpretations.
The certainty Seymour seeks cannot be given by any law passed by Parliament, even one reinforced by a referendum. Read more >
Don’t waste a recession - now’s the time for sweeping deregulation - June 19, 2024
At 10.45am on Thursday Stats NZ will release the latest Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data. Economists are divided on whether the data will reveal the economy is in a recession.
Immigration means our population has grown. Tomorrow’s release will confirm GDP per person has fallen. We, the people, are in a recession.
There is a lesson for the coalition here. “Never waste a recession,” well-known economist Joseph Schumpeter once reportedly said. As unemployment rises, the public mood will alter. Those who are marching in the streets opposing change are the same people who by spring will be demanding Government action.
No country has ever taxed its way to prosperity - it can only be achieved by embracing improvement.
The coalition has a once-in-a-generation opportunity to make sweeping deregulation. Donald Trump, despite his convictions and horrible behaviour, is now leading in US electoral polls. The Trump deregulation rapidly transformed the US economy. The average American was better off.
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Deregulation could do the same for New Zealand. We need fast-track approval for everyone. We need RMA reform yesterday. Read more >
There’s danger in Act’s coalition gamble - June 12, 2024
I went to the Act Party conference on Sunday. Only, it was not a conference but a rally. No policy remits, just MPs speaking and the guest speaker, Paul Henry.
I can listen to Parliament to hear MPs. I’ve heard Paul on the radio.
I went because Act is now in the most dangerous position. Since MMP no minor party in Cabinet has survived the next election remaining in Cabinet. I wanted to know if the policy gains are worth the political risk of being in a coalition.
David Seymour told the rally that if Act was not in government, then the Budget would have borrowed more.
As ministers cannot reveal Cabinet discussions how can we tell if Seymour is correct? Read more >
A government debt disaster, made in Japan - January 17, 2024
This year, we need to keep an eye on Japan. The Japanese central bank is trying to return the economy to normal, with some inflation and interest rates above zero.
For 30 years Japan has been conducting a heroic experiment in Keynesian economics, quantitative easing and government deficit spending. Government debt as a percentage of GDP is the highest in the developed world - 250 per cent according to the OECD.
Japan has been able to service such extraordinary debt because interest rates have been zero, prices have fallen and Japanese households are great savers.
Paradise, you might think, but the result has been that the Japanese economy, once the wonder of the world, has stagnated. From Japan’s experience, we should have known that our own experiment with quantitative easing and government deficit spending would end badly. Read more >
