The real crisis is the state of our natural capital, not the All Blacks. Photo / Mark Mitchell
The All Blacks aren't in crisis.
It's tough to hear the outrage on the radio, or read article after article on the latest performance of the All Blacks, and what a crisis our national rugby team is in.
I don't mean "tough" in that it's hard to hear (that's surely reserved for the team and its management who know more than anyone that they didn't deliver in the latest series).
It's tough, and tragic, because the real crisis is the state of our natural capital — our biodiversity, oceans, soil, freshwater, when we know just how much we rely on it both economically (generating our top 10 exports and in livelihoods for those who work in them) and what it provides us as individuals — our food, energy, building materials, medicines, and very air that we breathe.
The Aotearoa Circle convenes public and private sector leaders to solve large systemic challenges that will improve the state of our natural resources, ultimately achieving our vision — sustainable prosperity.
In 2022, we have some significant workstreams underway — many focusing on how we can best adapt to the significant climate changes around us, but also to a fast-moving, global movement to account for nature in our financial statements.
Tourism Adaptation just one of the roadmaps
The Tourism Adaptation Roadmap workstream has a leadership group representing not only the sector but also Maori, conservation, transport, hospitality, and science. Its chairs are Penny Nelson, Laurissa Cooney and Tak Mutu. Supporting it are a technical expert group and secretariat, PwC, who is coordinating the information and facilitating the decisions on what key actions are needed.
The leadership group has asked for four different climate scenarios to be considered — a world where increasing global temperatures have been kept to 1.5 degrees out to a 2.4 degree option.
Initial findings show that regardless of what is done, and what speed any remedies are completed at, there is so much change already locked in, and that the sector, and general society, are in for a tough transition if strong and immediate actions are not taken from here on. In some scenarios, it becomes clear that some regions are far worse off than others, where tourism becomes unviable.
They are now completing the narratives for the various climate scenarios so that clear actions can be identified and prioritised. The roadmap will land in November.
A similar programme is taking place for the agricultural sector.
Its adaptation roadmap is just kicking off and will address five key sub-sectors: dairy, sheep and beef, forestry, cropping and horticulture.
The co-chairs, Craig Ellison and Jenny Cameron, and the leadership group, along with a technical expert group, will again consider different climate scenarios before identifying the key actions. This work is projected to be completed by the beginning of December.
Whilst the two above are focusing on plans and strategies, our third key workstream is on implementation. In 2021, the seafood sector completed its adaptation strategy and roadmap and so this year has seen a new team assembled that will focus on five projects as part of Wave 1. As these roadmaps involve the whole sector, there is a significant workload to create, develop and oversee the actions needed to achieve its vision — a thriving marine environment, blue economy and seafood community.
The strategy and roadmap are mapped out to 2030 but the pressure is on to get more done in earlier years to limit the impact of any climate change on the sector.
Mana Kai Initiative
The final workstream that will land in 2022 is the national food roadmap, known as the Mana Kai Initiative. This has been nearly two years in the making with a hard-working leadership group chaired by Rangimarie Hunia and Matt Prichard. The secretariat, KPMG, is led by Ian Proudfoot and Jack Keeys.
Over 120 organisations across the system involving producers, environmentalists, health and food insecurity have been involved to discuss how best to deliver a food system that not only can sustain our food export market through regenerative practices but also feed "our five million" in a healthy and nutritious way.
Mana Kai will also land in November and detail 8-9 key recommendations across health, environment, agricultural and social themes.
The Aotearoa Circle is now turning its head to new projects — many of which will be implementation phases of the above plans but also includes a new area being directed by the Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures (TNFD). TNFDs are still being designed with the final framework set to land in September next year.
New Zealand was the first country to pass laws requiring publicly listed companies as well as banks, insurers and investment managers to report the impacts of climate change on their business — known as TCFDs (Taskforce for Climate-related Financial Disclosures) which will affect around 200 entities with financial years commencing in 2023.
But many people in New Zealand see the nature-related disclosures as moving much faster than climate.
The Circle is keen to investigate, understand, and build capability in its Partners for TNFDs as quickly as possible to help influence buy-in and get commitment to publish this information.
If the old adage of "what gets measured, gets managed" applies (and note: not everything that matters can be measured), we see the TNFDs as an opportunity for not only identifying and managing nature-related risks, but also the huge opportunity that exists for food and energy producers, tourist operators etc to create a legacy that finally halts the decline of our natural resources, and gives us the evidence to tell this to export markets.
If ever there was an opportunity to give farmers the social license to operate, which many have stripped them of in recent years, again the TNFDs provide a vehicle to do this. So long as in all cases, action is taken to improve the disclosures.
As Izzy Fenwick, Emerging Director of the Aotearoa Circle, wrote recently, "When you think about the natural capital we are reliant on, would you consider your organisation to be borrowing or stealing?
If we're borrowing, then we need to acknowledge the real bill and start repaying nature for what we've taken.
Because the truth is, if we don't start taking that seriously, these bills are going to end up being the kinds of bills we can never pay our way out of. Our climate crisis is nature's debt collector, and it won't be kind to future generations. It will hold them hostage.
And, when we consider the potential scenarios of climate change, this is going to feel a lot like torture.
For many, especially in developing countries, this torture is already manifesting in food insecurity, scarce water supplies, unbearable heat, and political instability with war for resources and global health.
Here we sit, comfortably in the economic systems benefiting us, while the natural systems and people we exclude along the way are canaries falling silent in the coalmine. So yes, in the same way that the All Blacks will need to listen to its critics and commit to repay the respect that the black jersey demands of them, so must we listen, acknowledge the true crisis and commit to restoring Aotearoa's natural capital.
• Vicki Watson is Chief Executive of The Aotearoa Circle.
Nicola Taylor on why it's all about scenario-planning.