Panuku Development Auckland CEO David Rankin says it's still too early to get a clear picture of how Auckland will emerge from the Covid-19 pandemic. Uncertainty clouds the picture.
Yet, he says, much of the city's economy has shown itself to be resilient and Government figures indicate a fast bounce-back could be under way.
"Certain things are clear," Rankin says. "One is that there has been a huge impact on businesses in the city centre, especially those in retail and services. The challenge will be to get the city centre back to something like it was.
"Fortunately, the sheer quality of a lot of the works that have been going on, making it a much nicer place, will help once all the work is finished."
Yet that work improving the city has also been disruptive.
Rankin says that other than the construction of the City Rail Link most of that work will soon be finished.
"The end is in sight. When people come back in, they are going to see it is terrific. That will flow on to businesses in the retail, food and beverage services areas.
Rankin says no-one really knows how many office workers will return to the city centre. "The same goes for when the international student market opens up again.
"Then there is the international tourist market and cruise visits. All these things affect businesses in the city centre."
Another challenge facing businesses is the amount of retail spending that was diverted to online shopping in the last year.
It's not yet clear how much of that spend will return to physical shopping. This affects businesses across the city.
"We're seeing a lot of centres around Auckland with empty shops," he adds.
"There were trends there anyway, but Covid accentuated them." That said, some town centres in Auckland have thrived with people who no longer head into the central city each day rediscovering shops and cafes in their neighbourhoods.
"This was an inevitable consequence of lockdown as people were forced to spend more time in their neighbourhoods," Rankin says.
"Many found there was a lot that they liked there. And so people are going to keep going to some of those places they found whether it's a café, a shop or just somewhere they like going to."
"That change accentuates the importance of the work we're doing in suburban neighbourhoods to make them to make them nicer places to live in.
"We're looking at some of the tireder public places where there's a need for more investment."
On the North Shore Panuku is heavily involved in both Northcote and Takapuna. Rankin says both town centres have excellent bus services.
"Northcote's a good example of where the Unitary Plan allows a lot more density. It's a popular place for people to live.
"We've got a job to do repurposing the local centre. We work closely with Kāinga Ora and with the private sector.
"Ultimately we will at least triple the population around the Northcote Centre and then in a few years we will have a lot of residential going into the centre itself."
He emphasises much of Northcote Centre and the surrounding area was built in the late 1950s and early 1960s. Much of it is either single level dwellings, with double levels in a few places. The built form is very old. But when you think how close it is to the Harbour Bridge and therefore the city, it is a desirable place to live.
"We need to get much better use out of that land," Rankin says.
"We've been concentrating in the last two years on buying any property there that we didn't already own.
"Before long we will be going out for a comprehensive redevelopment of it which will be staged over quite a long period of time.
"It will involve a lot more housing and a lot more height. At the same time we will spend on improving the public spaces and the community facilities. We'll have a town square and laneways."
While the Covid-19 pandemic has affected the timing of Panuku's urban regeneration projects, to date it hasn't changed much else.
There's no evidence that Covid-19 has changed people's wish to live in modern, denser homes closer to amenities and good transport links.
He thinks it's possible that developments will be built with less retail, but the demand for cafes and reasonably priced restaurants has not changed.
Driving Panuku's agenda is another key role for Rankin who has served Aucklanders for more than 30 years, working in local government in Auckland since 1984, including as the chief executive of Auckland City Council prior to amalgamation in 2010, and as chief executive of Auckland Council Property Ltd until 2015, ahead of Panuku Development Auckland's establishment.
He was previously Panuku's chief operating officer and after a period as acting CEO was confirmed in the role last month.
Mayor of Auckland Phil Goff has praised Rankin's deep institutional knowledge, strong relationships across the council, government and private sector, and deep understanding of what is required to help drive Auckland's urban development and regeneration, "His extensive skills and experience will help ensure that Panuku continues to play an important role in creating successful neighbourhoods and high-quality public spaces for Aucklanders," Goff says.
equity and diversity across the Auckland region.
"And then there is the regulatory framework and the RMA. There's a lot of process involved in achieving those outcomes."
Although the circumstances were not pleasant, there was something of a silver lining in the first Covid-19 lockdown for Panuku head of placemaking Frith Walker.
Walker says her team rejoiced a little when they saw what happened. "We could see people going outside and celebrating their places. They connected with their neighbours and got to know each other.
"Suddenly there was an appreciation for everything local. They also found they cared about their neighbours. We noticed people began caring more about their local shops and supporting local suppliers.
"Covid had us turning back to our neighbourhoods and recognising the glue that holds people together as a community."
This was noticeable in the suburbs, but Walker says something similar happened in the CBD which is now home to thousands of Aucklanders. Much the same happened there where people live more densely.
That human connection came through strong at the time.
Walker says she has spent much of the last year thinking about ways this can be built on and supported. It also triggered some reflection.
"The system wasn't working for everybody," she says.
"Not everyone lives in a beautiful house near a beautiful town centre. "The Covid pandemic gave us an opportunity to think more about fundamentals. You don't see a need for much placemaking where there are 17th century Georgian squares. That's because they were designed for the natural patterns in human life. "More recently we've been designing spaces around cars. Now we're even more aware of the need to get back to basics."
One of those human patterns is shopping, something that changed dramatically during the lockdown as more and more retail moved online. This is not a new problem, the switch to internet shopping was well under way before Covid appeared, but it accelerated. Walker says while shopping may move online, people are social creatures and have a need to interact with others.
"In the past you'd go to a town centre because you've got to go shopping. Maybe the trick is to build other stuff as well. Malls are turning themselves inside out and, a colleague pointed out some time ago that public spaces are the new anchor tenant. We have an opportunity for adaptive reuse of space.
"If it turns out, for example, that we don't need as many inner city office blocks for whatever reason, then we can think about using the buildings for housing. It could be time to think about more inner city gardens and the infrastructure needed to keep the local population safe and connected. Less retail is an opportunity that could turn out OK."
Connection is a word that occurs again and again with placemakers like Walker.
She says that's at the core of her work. "People see the events, they see the spaces, they see food trucks turning up and everything else, but the secret job behind all that is to make people connect with each other and with their places. It's something that we know makes people healthier and happier".
'You can't translate and transform local communities overnight' From the outside, it feels as if Panuku has hit its stride in the last 18 months or so. As Panuku Chair Paul Majurey explains that's because it took a lot of background work before the visible projects could start.
"It's one thing for the council to provide us with capital, that's a very important part of our platform.
"But it takes a lot of work and people hours to deliver on that capital and what it was intended for.
"What you see now is the culmination of several years' work from when the transformation and unlock priorities were set by the council back in 2015.
"You can't translate and transform local communities overnight and build towns in an instant. It takes a lot of discussion with communities and with local boards to find out what they see as optimum outcomes.
"We also need to ensure there is both equity and diversity across the Auckland region. "And then there is the regulatory framework and the RMA. There's a lot of process involved in achieving those outcomes."