When 50 of New Zealand’s top chief executives declared that the country had no growth strategy — it was time to sit up and take notice.
That’s how I introduced the first Mood of the Boardroom survey within a Herald State of the Nation report that I edited in November 2002.
The 2023 Election Survey is the 21st edition of the CEOs’ Survey.
It’s become a valued and trusted barometer of CEO opinion.
On business. Politics. Personalities. Policies. Issues of the day. Risk factors and more.
When we launched, it was a different age. Surveys were faxed to CEOs. We deciphered their handwriting and calculated percentages.
I am sure some are grateful that electronic tools take care of that now. Less room for error.
We went on to forge a valued relationship with BusinessNZ to take the survey wider than the C-suite.
In 2004, we held the first debate between the finance minister and their opponent at a breakfast seminar.
I would like to thank all all those who have participated either as finance minister or their opponent for taking part.
Also, the many CEOs who have taken part in the 21 surveys (so far).
And our sponsors whose support makes this possible.
Most CEOs favoured National’s Don Brash for the top job but incumbent Labour Prime Minister Helen Clark impressed most with her election campaign.
CEOs rated her performance on the campaign trail at 3.23/5 compared to Brash’s 2.95/5.
Just over 70 per cent preferred Brash for PM. But 28 per cent favoured Clark rating her leadership skills at 3.78/5 compared to Brash’s 3.09/5.
Clark also triumphed when it came to management: 3.64/5 to Brash’s 3.34/5.
But the National Leader — a former Reserve Bank Governor — had the edge on economic management at 4.36/2.57.
CEOs viewed Brash as there to do a job. “He’ll only get one term to make a difference before opposition sets in.”
Clark was “more in the John Howard mould of cautious stable leadership”.
A series of mishaps killed Brash’s chances.
The Mood of the Boardroom breakfast debate was dominated by a feisty exchange between the Labour Finance Minister, the late Sir Michael Cullen, and National’s John Key.
Both were asked if they were a car what model would they be? Key flashed back, “A red Ferrari”.
Cullen smirked: “A yellow Lamborghini”. Labour won.
“Gladiator v Boadicea: No Contest”, is how we headlined the election race face-off between Helen Clark (Labour) and (now Sir) John Key (National) who took over from Brash after the 2005 defeat. They were locked in a fight to the political death in which there could be only one winner: 90 per cent of CEOs favoured Key. But Clark was a seasoned performer who had contested four elections as Labour’s leader and won three.
Again, CEOs rated her leadership skills ahead of Key (3.9/5) to (3.6/5). Her experience and ability to form a coalition government was a plus. But Key was ahead on economic management. With the recessionary crunching confidence, and New Zealand in the thrall of the Global Financial Crisis, Key’s financial markets experience counted.
The factor that most worried CEOs was the international credit crunch. Becoming more a “productive” economy was an emerging concern — as it’s been for two decades now with little to show for it.
Bill English (Now Sir Bill), National’s finance spokesperson debated with Cullen at the Mood of the Boardroom breakfast. It was typically feisty but with serious undertones. Behind the scenes both sides were talking through the implementation of the Crown Retail Deposit scheme to maintain confidence in the New Zealand financial system. National won.
Virtually all CEOs — 98 per cent — said John Key deserved another three years in the country’s top job. The 100 CEOs also ranked Key above Labour’s Phil Goff on all measured attributes. Leadership skills (4.25/5 to 2.07/5); his ability to form a coalition government (4.29/5 to 2.06/5) were top. But his economic management skills were also rated highly (3.89/5 to 1.96/5) — important factors during a crisis-ridden term.
Key had another plus: Richie McCaw had led the All Blacks to victory. It meant he went into the election campaign with the benefit of a strong tailwind of national optimism.
The National-led Government’s economic programme was impacted by the Global Financial Crisis, domestic recession, the Canterbury earthquakes, the $1.75 billion bailout of South Canterbury Finance and the downgrading of New Zealand’s credit rating. But it still managed to orchestrate a “tax switch” and retain broad business confidence. CEOs marked Key down on his failure to put forward a compelling vision and strategy for New Zealand, and his political courage.
When it came to the Mood of the Boardroom breakfast, Labour’s finance spokesman David Cunliffe was up against Sir Bill English. Cunliffe made a valiant case for a capital gains tax, compulsory superannuation and raising the qualifying age for National Super. National won.
The “Mood of the Boardroom” changed markedly during the three weeks the Herald surveyed CEOs on election issues, their company’s prospects and what would “make the boat go faster”. Major businesses expected to make more profits and employ more. But there was a change in the political air prompted by the Dirty Politics revelations which 62 per cent believed had damaged “Brand Key” and with it the prime minister’s standing.
Irrespective, 97 per cent still wanted John Key back as prime minister, overwhelmingly preferring him over Labour’s David Cunliffe. But he was no longer seen as Teflon John. On every metric: leadership, through to trust and courage, the CEOs rated Key above Cunliffe. He was seen as the nation’s cheerleader and with Sir Bill English as finance minister had presided over six stable years in government. "
At the Mood breakfast, English faced off with David Parker who promoted Labour’s plan to launch KiwiBuild and Make KiwiSaver compulsory.
Chris Luxon (then Air NZ CEO) made an appearance in the survey saying, “English was the best Treasurer we’ve ever had … it’s not always politically easy but they’ve found ways to manage the politics as well as do the right thing economically.” Words he may reflect on yet. National won.
In 2017, an overwhelming majority of chief executives viewed Jacinda Ardern’s confirmation as leader of the Labour Party as an election game-changer.
Some 88 per cent saw Ardern (now Dame Jacinda) as the lightning rod which could catapult Labour to power at the 2017 election. But their appetite for regime change was tempered by Labour’s failure to be upfront about its intentions on major policies affecting business, like capital gains.
Ardern finally addressed this by ruling it out.
Prime Minister Bill English, who took over from John Key as PM in December 2016, was admired by chief executives for his financial prowess.
But they felt he had a lack of boldness and political chutzpah. “There is clearly a level of enthusiasm, energy and commitment to what is lacking in New Zealand at the moment,” said Mainfreight’s Don Braid.
English still outpointed the neopyhte on multiple metrics: Economic management — 4.7/5 to 3.63/5, integrity 4.2/5 to Ardern’s 3.51/5 and trustworthiness to 4.17/5 to 3.34/5.
The Prime Minister was also ahead on the ability to forge a coalition.
But this reckoned without the intervention of NZ First’s Winston Peters, who chose Labour. Labour won.
By the time of the 2020 election, Jacinda Ardern’s leadership had been tested for three years: the Christchurch terror attack, Whakaari/White Island disaster and the Covid-19 pandemic were all front of mind for respondents to the Herald’s Mood of the Boardroom Election survey. CEOs rated her leadership at 3.88/5 — ahead of her opponent National’s Judith Collins.
But confidence had also plunged to the lowest levels seen since the Herald began surveying the nation’s leading chief executives.
CEOs were particularly concerned about the maintenance of a strong border against Covid-19, which they rated at an extreme concern.
Collins also outpointed Ardern on several ratings: courage, 4.2/5 to 3.67/5 and on economic management, 3.88/5 to 2.17/5.
Some 165 respondents took part in the 2020 survey, comprising 150 CEOs and a group of high-profile directors from across the spectrum.
Labour’s decision to raise personal income taxes on just 2 per cent of New Zealanders were slammed by some as “tokenistic”.
At the Mood breakfast, Labour’s finance spokesman Grant Robertson was up against National’s Paul Goldsmith — who had not been long in the role.
Labour won.
Many business leaders rate the Opposition Finance Spokesperson highly.