Mood of the Boardroom: Reconnecting with the rest of the world

EMZ chief executive Brett O'Riley. Photo / Chris Loufte

Nearly three-quarters of respondents to the Herald's 2021 CEOs Survey want the Government to target a firm percentage of New Zealanders to be fully vaccinated before it opens up the New Zealand border.

"We need to vaccinate as many people as we can and hopefully that will be every eligible person," said Beca Group CEO Greg Lowe.

"Once the vaccine programme has rolled out it will be time to move to the next step — careful, safe and progressive reconnection to low risk countries.

"This will entail some level of risk, but as we are seeing from the current situation, closed borders have risks as well."

An airport executive took a different view: "I think it is better to have a commitment to open and then keep options open. A hard threshold might set an impossible hurdle that prevents opening.

"Better to look at a wider set of conditions — but as long as the commitment to open as soon as everyone has had the option to get the vaccine."

The Government's Reconnecting New Zealanders to the World framework stops short of being a detailed plan with dates and action. But it's indicative of what has to occur before Cabinet has the confidence to open up in the first quarter of 2022.

Released at a business forum on Thursday August 12, it had barely landed before Ardern put all of New Zealand back into level 4 lockdown at 11.59pm on Tuesday August 17.

But while Ardern has been careful not to set a firm vaccination target for a New Zealand border opening, when it comes to the lengthy Auckland lockdown she has talked up the possibility that 90 per cent of Aucklanders could have had their first dose of the Pfizer vaccine by the time Cabinet reviewed the city's level 3 restrictions last Monday.

Auckland Mayor Phil Goff went further, saying he wants more than 90 per cent of Aucklanders to be fully vaccinated so the gateway city is not subjected to more punishing lockdowns.

The Herald has also launched The 90% Project; a campaign to vaccinate Kiwis, save lives and enjoy freedom.

Ardern's rhetoric suggests she has not backed away from the thrust of the August framework.

A professional firm boss said, "it's not about a firm target. But it is about very, very firm messaging about the importance of vaccination.

"Ultimately, once everyone has had the opportunity to be vaccinated, then they need to move on to reopening pragmatically.

"And if people have opted otherwise then there's not much we can do on that (other than protecting the vulnerable and those that don't have a choice).

"It is collective responsibility."

Fletcher Building chairman Bruce Hassall said the first step was to give everyone the opportunity to get vaccinated. "There will however, come a time (soon I hope) when the rights of the majority who have done the right thing and got vaccinated will need to prevail and those who choose not to get vaccinated will need to live with the risk and health consequences of their decision.

"That's how a democracy works."

"The higher the vaccination rate, the better for the country," observed Mainfreight CEO Don Braid.

Said the EMA's Brett O'Riley: "We need to encourage all New Zealanders that can be vaccinated to be vaccinated, and be bold about it.

"This is like a wartime footing and requires bold aspirations. push hard now and make as available as possible until bookings taper off."

"Are we going to be a hermit nation forever?" asks a food industry chief.

Views are mixed when it comes to setting a date for the border opening.

Beca's Lowe, who is among the 44 per cent who don't believe the Government should set a firm date, said "we all understand the strategy is to vaccinate first — that's the first step to a more normal environment.

"We should be planning now for what happens at that point.

"What are the safe steps to progressive reopening and reconnection — to which countries, under what rules and with what processes?

"We also need to think further out than just border access.

"How will Kiwis prove vaccine status when overseas beyond the arrival airport ?

"This will be critical for access to everything from transport, to accommodation, food, etc.

"We should be actively working on international data protocols now as they will take some time to establish".

Hayden Wilson of Denton Kensington Swan agreed: "Setting concrete dates in the face of a shifting and unpredictable virus is at least naive and at worst foolish."

Some 42 per cent of CEOs wanted a firm date.

Said an independent director, "If you don't have a target you don't have the pressure to get the system up to drive to achieve the target.

"Give people who have family offshore the hope! Be bold, set a target and go for it."

A professional firm CEO added: "It will always be subject to deferral if things change."

"Regardless of progress to date, any decision is heavily nuanced and needs to be made based on the facts and situation at the time," said a dairy executive.

"Those calling earlier for open borders, then Australia, then Pacific Islands didn't take long to turn against their earlier views."

A Government adviser was categorical. "No, it will all be wrong. There are too many uncertainties around how the virus will continue to evolve and how the New Zealand population will step up to the vaccine challenge.

"First quarter next year — which really means February/March — is precise enough for us."

An aviation sector executive said the border decision should be based on situational position not a hard date." However, an expectation would be good."

"We need to adapt — the virus is," said Kevin Obern of OfficeMax.

Ditching the bubble: for how long?

CEOs are not confident the transtasman bubble will reopen this year.

Nearly two-thirds of respondents to the Herald's CEOs survey are predicting that quarantine-free travel across the Ditch will not resume in 2021.

Among the one-fifth who predict it might, many place caveats, such as that transtasman travellers may find themselves having to produce a vaccine passport, as well a pre-departure Covid test, and go into MIQ/self-isolation on arrival either side.

The travel bubble was punctured in July when the NZ Government paused quarantine-free travel between the two countries after just 95 days. This came as Australia's Covid-19 outbreaks in New South Wales and Victoria worsened.

Within weeks the Covid Delta variant had broken out here.

Aviation sector executives responding the the survey said they don't expect the bubble back in the form it was. Air NZ CEO Greg Foran has announced the airline will require all adult international passengers to be fully vaccinated from February 1 next year.

Said an exporter: "Transtasman is the safest airbridge. Both countries are now on a high Vax journey and should be able to move as one."

A Government adviser was cautious: "Not unless NSW gets their act together — leadership and adherence to lockdown rules has been woeful to date — so doesn't give me much cause for optimism."

"The Australian media suggests it is likely Australia will move away from an elimination strategy to a public health management strategy — which would imply an acceptance of some level of community Covid there," says Lloyd Kavanagh from MinterEllison -RuddWatts. "It follows NZ cannot open a travel bubble, unless NZ gives up on elimination here."

What are our best moves for the future of living with Covid?

The Herald asked CEOs: What more could the Government invest in to ensure NZ minimises the continuing economic impact of the coronavirus epidemic amidst an environment where new variants might emerge?

• Public-private partnerships for quarantine facilities where essential workers' can be quarantined at companies' cost — 73%
• Intensive contact tracing for Covid-19 using 'best in class' technological capabilities ie mobile phone/EFTPOS tracking — 73%
• Mandatory vaccination certificates to enter restaurants and bars (once the initial vaccination period is finished) — 56%
• Mental health and individual wellbeing — 51%
• Declared air bridges with major trading partners (eg China, Australia, US) as they get their populations vaccinated and bring Covid-19 under control — 51%
• Public-private isolation facilities for international education students — 45%
• Separate Government operational agency to manage the future impact of the Covid-19 pandemic/subsequent pandemics instead of through Ministry of Health — 45%
• Intensive and regular batch testing for Covid-19 to catch the extent of community transmission early — 42%
• Attract foreign high-net worthers to move to NZ and invest here to create jobs — 40%
• Public-private partnerships for quarantine facilities for international tourists — 36%
• Greater use of masks in public environments — 30%

CEOs were asked to tick all that applied and to make their additions to the list.

Here's some of those suggestions:

• My fear is the Government does not want to do any of the above because it will look like failure — why haven't they done these things so far? Leadership does involve the willingness to not only 'listen" but adapt and act on other peoples good ideas. (independent director)
• Attracting foreign investment to create jobs only makes sense if we have labour to fill those jobs. While some privately funded quarantine makes sense, enabling fully vaccinated travellers from lower-risk countries across our border without quarantine is a more valuable focus. Key enablers are much better testing technologies — faster, cheaper, less invasive, just as accurate as nasal PCR ... we have been woeful in evolving our testing strategy. And significantly enhanced tracing (Covid app and domestic vaccine passport/certificate requirements. (Government adviser)
• Public private partnership should come with incentives to get it right i.e. fines. Cost of lockdown is severe. (Not-for-profit CEO)
• We are going to need to learn to live with coronavirus. All of the above assume a NZ where we quarantine arrivals. Why would you come here if you gave to be quarantined? (Carol Campbell, T&G Global)
• Disturbing that you are presenting these gulag options as long term solutions. (Banker)
• Use of more high-tech and quick turnaround Covid tests including microfluidics from pinprick blood samples. (Science CEO)
• Clear incentives to be vaccinated by a certain date — greater flexibility for those vaccinated and a firm line that those who are not will miss out. (Investment banker)
• Stop raising expectations around virus elimination and start investing in personalised health strategies and solutions. (Craig Stobo, LGFA)
• NZ needs to transition to an environment where vaccinated workers may not want to work alongside non-vaccinated workers — implications for customer contracts. (Peter Reidy, Fletcher Construction)