Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has been catapulted right out of the Cabinet "top 10" in the Herald's 2022 CEOs survey. In this year's Mood of the Boardroom, Ardern comes in at 12th place — at 2.3/5 — her lowest ranking in this survey.
Importantly for the Labour Government, which faces a general election in 2023, some 24 per cent of CEOs regard her performance as PM as "not impressive", at 1/5 on a scale where 1 equals "not impressive" and 5 equals "very impressive". A further 35 per cent rated her performance at 2/5 and 31 per cent rated her at 2/5. Just 1 per cent thought her performance was "very impressive".
This compares with her prior ratings in 2021 (3.03/5); 2020 (3.91/5- off the back off the Covid response); 2019 (2.9/5) and 2018 (3/5).
Importantly for Labour, Finance Minister Grant Robertson (who has been replaced as top Cabinet performer this year by Climate Change Minister James Shaw), comes in at 2.98/5.
But it is a continued slump from his peak in this survey of 4.18/5 in 2020 — where he was ranked first among the Cabinet off the back of his initial fiscal management of Covid.
That said, some 7 per cent of survey respondents marked his performance as "very impressive" at 5/5 with a further 30 per cent at 4/5.
Robertson is the "go-to" Minister for business. But throughout the 2022 survey, it is apparent CEOs and directors' frustration in dealing with a Government perceived as failing to connect has grown markedly.
This is reflected in the low score of 1.57/5 they gave to the Government for its policy planning and consultation with business.
The major star of the current Government is Climate Change Minister James Shaw who sits as a Minister outside Cabinet. CEOs rated his performance at 3.27/5.
"Shaw is in the wrong party. He understands climate change policy better than anyone, but the Greens are more interested in social issues," said a top chair.
Irrespective of the personal ratings CEOs accorded individual Ministers, they rated the Government's performance highly in several areas.
They were:
• Supporting Māori and Pasifika aspirations. 3.49/5
• Maintaining strong international relationships 3.32/5
• Progress on international trade agreements 3.16/5
• Maintaining an independent foreign policy 3.01/5
• Addressing climate change challenges 2.71/5
This reflects the focus of the Labour Government — which has a strong Maori caucus — in delivering to Maori after years of deprivation.
Ardern's focus on maintaining strong international relationships through Covid comes through; the offshore missions she has led this year to Asia (Singapore and Japan), the US and Australia are part of that.
Trade Minister Damien O'Connor's successful completion of the RCEP (Asian regional trade agreement), the NZ-UK free trade agreement and the signing of the European free trade deal have been a success.
Addressing climate change challenges is also an area in which the senior business community is highly invested and can see progress.
Some key areas of Government competency which sit squarely under Robertson's brief were marked down. Among them were
• Maintaining fiscal responsibility 2.14/5;
• Addressing the infrastructure deficit 1.88/5
• Execution and delivery of policies 1.63/5
• Transforming the economy 1.56/5
• Policy planning and consultation with business 1.57/5
Other ratings were: regional development 2.62/5; implementing sensible Covid policies 2.28/5; taking mental health seriously 2.27/5; addressing the housing shortage 1.81/5; improving children's wellbeing 1.80/5; addressing transport constraints 1.80/5; and immigration 1.36/5.
Typical comments: "Lots of talk on policy but little actual impact — quite often glugging things up," from an infrastructure CEO. "Also have driven up government overheads dramatically. So, arguably central government has got more expensive and less effective."
Major reforms
The survey also asked CEOs to focus on some major areas of Government reform: among them immigration, the RMA, increased technology (including greentech investment), freshwater rules, centralisation of DHBs into one national organisation, the Three Waters consolidation into one national organisation, the increased role for Maori in the governance of NZ institutions (co-governance) and the proposed social insurance scheme (unemployment and health.)
Here are some representative views:
Property CEO: "Three Waters reforms are essential — we simply can't keep pumping the poo into the sea, and local authorities never like to spend on invisible infrastructure even if their communities can afford what they need. But it feels like this reform is stuck in a quagmire of poor communication, aided and abetted by a healthy dash of racism and conspiracy theories.
"Feels like it needs a major re-set with better stakeholder buy-in from the get-go, and probably a new name. "Immigration: I think events have raced way ahead of policy in this sphere. The policy being implemented is designed for a closed border economy where unemployment is 10 per cent, not an inflation-strained one with desperate skills and labour shortages. Follow Australia's lead — slip the leash and keep an eye on the impacts."
Implementing Health system reforms: "The jury is barely being assembled, much less being sent out to consider the evidence; but Te Whatu Ora could be very, very important.
"I think they've chosen well in Rob Campbell as Chair of Health NZ and I think it's the right reform — the duplication and silos involved in all those DHBs, not to forget the governance structure, has long been nuts. Generally, the workplan the Government has is impressive and ambitious in its scale; I think though that the number of unforced errors (GST on KiwiSaver fees, anyone?) demonstrates that the talent is spread too thin to manage it effectively.
"With one or two notable exceptions (the Housing portfolio being one) consultation and engagement with business appear to have gone by the wayside. That's disappointing and potentially fatal to ambition."
NZ Initiative's Roger Partridge: "The Government has seen 'centralisation' as a universal solution to the delivery of public services under pressure. But the case for centralisation (for example in health, polytechnics, RMA consenting) has not been made out. What's most important are the incentives and accountability mechanisms faced by service providers.
"Without changing the incentives, centralisation risks compounding already poor delivery by creating a bureaucratic monopoly.
"While a case for amalgamating some water companies may exist, the Three Waters reforms are a good example of what is wrong with the Government's approach to policy-making.
"The biggest problem with council ownership of water assets is that constraints on the provision of new (or upgraded) water infrastructure constrains the availability of land for housing. This contributes to the housing affordability crisis. Without necessary incentives, centralisation of (effective) ownership of water assets will not solve that problem.
"Finally, the evidence is clear that social unemployment insurance schemes lead to higher unemployment and adverse effects on overall wellbeing.
"The policy is not simply a good idea at the wrong time. It is a bad idea at the worst possible time.
The list includes Cabinet Ministers and Ministers outside Cabinet ranked by CEOs
1. James Shaw (Climate change) 3.27/5
2. Grant Robertson (Finance) 2.98/5
3. Chris Hipkins (Education) 2.95/5
4. Damien O'Connor (Trade) 2.92/5
5. Kiri Allan (Justice) 2.83/5
6. Ayesha Verrall (Covid-19 response) 2.49/5
7. Stuart Nash (Tourism) 2.43/5
8. Megan Woods Energy 2.42
9. Peeni Henare (Defence) 2/39/5
10. Andrew Little (Health) 2.37/5
11. Jan Tinetti (Internal Affairs) 2.34/5
12. Jacinda Ardern (PM, National Security & Intelligence) 2.30/5
13. Kieran McAnulty (Emergency Management) 2.25/5
14. Michael Wood (Immigration) 2.19/5
15. Carmel Sepuloni (Social Dev & Employment) 2.13/5
16. Aupito Sio (Pacific Peoples) 2.12/5
17. Meka Whaitiri (Customs) 2.03/5
18. David Parker (Environment) 2.00/5
19. Priyanca Radhaskrishnan (Ethnic communities) 2.00/5
20. David Clark (Commerce & Consumer Affairs) 1.96/5
21. Marama Davidson (Prevention family violence) 1.94/5
22. Nanaia Mahuta (Foreign Affairs) 1.93/5
23. Willie Jackson (Broadcasting) 1.89/5
24. Phil Twyford (Disarmament) 1.78/5
25. Kelvin Davis (Maori Crown relations) 1.66/5
26. Poto Williams Conservation 1.62/5
OPINION: Tensions are likely to become more evident next year.