The Rakaia River illustrates how different soil types are suitable for different types of farming.
New Zealand currently earns approximately $20 billion of export income per annum from dairy products. Meat from these animals is additional.
The simple reality is that dairy underpins New Zealand's export-led economy. Dairy is Number One!
Another simple reality is that the dairy industry has been struggling for social acceptance within New Zealand. There are multiple reasons for this. At the top of the list is the perception that cows pollute the water and create greenhouse gases. Both of these issues present big challenges. Then come issues of animal and human welfare on dairy farms.
If there were simple alternatives that could earn similar export earnings, then perhaps the dairy industry could indeed fade away. But there are no simple alternatives.
The reason that we have become the world's biggest exporter of dairy products is quite simple. On most of our flat and gently sloping land it is by far the most profitable farming system. That is a consequence of our temperate maritime climate, combined with soils that have major limitations for cropping systems.
The notion that New Zealand might replace dairy by becoming a big crop-producing exporter is naive. Our cereal growing industry goes back to the earliest days of European settlement. We can produce great yields but we have never been able to make that pay on global markets. And for those who understand the science and economics of agriculture, that is no surprise.
Intensive cropping
One of the challenges associated with intensive cropping systems is that nutrient removal from the soils is much greater than with livestock systems. Urban folk seldom understand that vegetable and cereal crops, remove far more nutrients from soils than do livestock systems, and these have to be replaced from somewhere.
On our better soils it is possible to combine cropping with a livestock phase, and this is exactly what we do. But the notion of trying to grow crops on other soils would be an ecological disaster. In New Zealand, we have been blessed in multiple ways, but we have not been blessed with the naturally fertile soils found in much of the Americas and also much of Europe.
The importance of soil type is illustrated by the photo of the Rakaia River taken from the air in early June (see photo, top right). The North Bank has skinny soils used totally for livestock and is a consistent green colour. In contrast, the soils on the southern side are much deeper as a consequence of wind-blown silt coming out of the Rakaia Gorge in Nor'westers. Those South-Bank soils have been used for mixed crop and livestock for well over 100 years, and hence the varied colours.
As for horticulture, yes, we will continue to grow our exports. Kiwifruit and wine are the standouts. Then come apples and a range of sub-tropical fruits. These are all making an increasing contribution to our export economy. But to think we can run our export economy on these crops is to misunderstand the enormity of livestock's contribution and the horticultural constraints.
A quick look in my family pantry shows tinned tomatoes that come from Italy and tinned apple slices from China. Both are Pams brand and I had to look hard to find the country of source. The Wattie's can of "four beans in spring water" was made in New Zealand from imported beans and local spring water. The canned apricots come from Spain.
Once upon a time New Zealand had its own apricot-canning industry but that disappeared with the building of the Clyde Dam and the arrival of Lake Dunstan.
Many decades ago, I played a part in the economic analyses that demonstrated how destruction of the apricot-canning industry would be one of the outcomes of making way for the dam. It was all about trade-offs.
As for artificial plant-based meat and dairy, there is a notion these can be produced by some magic laboratory processes. But there still has to be an energy source to feed the bacteria and related organisms. One such source is cane sugar. Another is supposedly hydrogen.
Some clarification about hydrogen is important. In the future, hydrogen may well become a means of storing energy, but it is not a source of energy. So yes, we could take the electricity currently generated at Manapouri and used by Rio Tinto Aluminium at the Tiwai Point smelter, convert it into hydrogen, and then use it to produce artificial meat and milk.
Recently, I watched a television programme where an influential new Zealander argued that Huntly electricity generation should also come from hydrogen. There did not seem to be recognition that the energy in the hydrogen would itself have to come from electricity in the first place. So yes, we could convert energy sourced from hydro or wind into electricity, then store it within hydrogen, then convert it back to electricity at Huntly. It reminds me a little of the nursery rhyme about Liza, Henry, and the hole in the bucket.
Comparative advantage
One of the wonders of both pastoral and cropping systems is the use of that infinite source of energy called "The Sun" through Nature's wonderful process called photosynthesis. The energy itself comes free, but of course there are costs in turning it into food for the dinner table.
One of the fundamental principles of economics is the theory of comparative advantage. This theory says that countries should produce the products for which they have a comparative advantage and then trade these for items where they lack that advantage.
That is why New Zealand has always focused on pastoral products that suit the temperate maritime climate, while other countries focus on crops which grow best in continental climates.
Here in New Zealand, we will never be able to grow world-leading crops of bananas, oranges, soy beans, rice or even cereals. In some cases, our climate is totally unsuitable. In other cases, we can grow the crops but the economics are strongly against us. And very simply, we do not have enough of the top-quality soils that would be needed.
I trust that by now I have convinced at least some of my readers to the notion that there are no easy alternatives to our Number 1 export earner. Therefore, it makes sense to see what we can do to solve key problems. That requires us to move beyond arm-waving and generalities, and come up with specific technologies and systems that can transform the New Zealand dairy industry.
Composting 'mootels'
Currently, I spend a lot of my time working with a small group of farmers who are actually doing something about it. These people are what are called "end-user" innovators, taking new ideas and making them work in their own specific situations across the country.
The key innovation is the notion of "composting mootels" or "composting shelters". These two terms are essentially the same concept. We try not to use the word "barn" because the composting mootels and shelters are fundamentally different to every other type of barn. Also, in the New Zealand context, the idea of cows being enclosed in a conventional barn as occurs in Europe and the Americas is enough to start the blood pressure rising with anger and hostility.
The composting concept the way we are using it in New Zealand is very different to anything I have seen overseas. The mootels and shelters are open structures with lots of room for cows to move around and exhibit their normal social behaviours.
The key idea is that the farming systems are still very much pasture-based, with the cows harvesting their own feed throughout most of the year. But once they have a full belly, they can come back to the shelter and that is where they do most of their peeing and pooing.
Unlike dogs and cats, cattle cannot be toilet-trained, but that does not really matter. The pee and poo combine with the bedding to start another of nature's wonderful processes called "composting". This generates heat, and as long as the bedding is tilled at least once per day, then the fermentation is aerobic and the moisture evaporates. The cows remain warm, dry and clean. They love it. And there is no smell, totally unlike other barns.
Duration-controlled grazing.
In most parts of New Zealand, pasture does not provide enough feed in the winter. So, the cows have to be fed supplements. This can be crop or silage, typically fed adjacent to the shelter, or in troughs within the mootel.
Alternatively, the cows can still go out into the field to harvest their own winter crops, but they are much happier if they can quickly come back to the warm dry shelter.
The notion of duration-controlled grazing is fundamental to the environmental benefits.
With standard New Zealand grazing systems, the big environmental problem is the intensity of nitrogen within the urine patch as this is what drives nitrogen leaching.
The pee and poo patches are fundamental to nitrous oxide emissions. This problem can be solved with composting mootels and shelters. The main times when it is important to get the cows off the pastures for at least part of every 24 hours are autumn and winter.
I tell farmers that they should plan on removing the compost and adding new bedding once a year. But a farmer-led innovation that is currently occurring may well mean that in future we can keep the bedding for up to three years.
One of the Canterbury farmers that I learn from employs a sharemillker who has been on the farm for many years.
The sharemilker tells me that the winters have never been so pleasant. Even on a fine day, the feeding and tilling chores are all finished earlier than with the previous systems.
This year we are having a horrible winter in Canterbury and there are some envious neighbours.
Of course, building new infrastructure costs money.
The economics have to be worked out individually for each situation, but the farm accounts that I see, together with the physical performance, tell me that on the exemplar farms things are going very well. Benefits come from considerably less winter-feed required, better cow condition, well managed feeding transitions at calving, much less pugging damage to paddocks and increased milk production in the vat. An additional North Island benefit is summer-shade with cows then holding their peak production into the autumn.
Banks are currently cautious of lending for any infrastructure and that includes composting mootels and shelters. Most bank policy comes from the Australian headquarters. There is a need for some banker education.
Research and development
I have referred already to the importance of end-user innovation, but what about the formal research and development (R&D) system within NZ?
The answer is that apart from a small grant to me from The Agricultural and Marketing Research and Development Trust (AGMARDT), the formal R&D system has yet to get involved. That may seem surprising, but those who understand the challenges of creating transformational momentum rather than marginal change will appreciate why that is the reality.
My current AGMARDT project is setting out what we already know, what we don't know, and hence some needed R&D focusses.
My reckoning is that we know enough to move forward with confidence, but there is a great deal of work to be done if the technologies and systems are to be rolled out efficiently across broader industry.
Right now, it is the innovators who are moving forward and creating their own learnings. Then will come the early followers, followed by the late followers and then the laggards. It is going to be an interesting journey, with lots of twists and turns.
Keith Woodford is a retired professor from Lincoln University who retains an honorary position as Professor of Agri-Food Systems. He now consults in New Zealand and internationally through his own company AgriFood Systems Ltd. He can be contacted at kbwoodford@gmail.com.
Christopher Luxon speaks on restoring farmer confidence