Brewer tipped to trump Fonterra

San Miguel is likely to trump Fonterra's bid for Australian dairy company National Foods this week according to market speculation across the Tasman.

Friday is the last day for San Miguel to change the terms of its existing offer, which closes on April 15.

Some Australian analysts are picking that San Miguel could lift its bid to A$6.35 a share.

That would take the total value of National Foods to nearly A$1.9 billion ($2.06 billion) and trump Fonterra's latest bid by 15c.

The $6.35 figure would match the value that Fonterra has attached to its offer when the tax benefits of a redeemable preference share component are factored in.

But a full cash offer at that price would always be preferable to shareholders, one analyst said.

San Miguel's current offer is for A$5.95 a share.

San Miguel made a statement to the Filipino stock exchange yesterday distancing itself from the speculation and suggesting it had not yet decided whether to lift its bid.

"The company will make a disclosure when a decision is made," the Manila-based beer brewer said.

The Australian market has interpreted San Miguel's enthusiastic reaction to an Australian Takeover Panel victory as a sign it is still very much in the hunt for National Foods.

After a complaint by San Miguel the panel forced Fonterra to disclose details of a joint-venture deal with French company Sodima/Yoplait.

That deal has been done to ensure that National Foods can keep licensing rights to Yoplait yoghurts in event of a full takeover by Fonterra.

A Fonterra spokesman yesterday described the Takeovers Panel decision as a sideshow. "We've said we'll only do this deal if it returns value to our shareholders. That situation hasn't changed," he said.