Brain Drain: Kiwi departures remain high but numbers leaving have stabilised

The number of departing Kiwis has stabilised. Photo / 123rf

The annual rate of net migration gain has stabilised at 32,900 for the year to February.

That compares with a gain of 32,500 in the year to January but follows a big slump as departures soared and arrivals fell last year.

Annual net migration peaked in the year ending October 2023, with a gain of 135,500.

The annual net migration gain in the year to February 2024 was 113,700.

Compared with the February 2024 year, the latest data showed migrant arrivals were 154,300, down 30%.

Migrant departures were 121,300, up 15%.

For migrant departures in the February 2025 year, citizens of New Zealand were the largest group, with 69,100 departures.

While this remains at historically high levels, it represents a plateau in departure numbers – compared to 69,200 in the year to January.

The net migration gain of 32,900 was made up of a net gain of 77,000 non-New Zealand citizens and a net migration loss of 44,100 New Zealand citizens.

Annual migrant arrivals peaked at 234,800 in the year to October 2023, Stats NZ said.

Annual migrant departures provisionally peaked at 122,000 in the year ending January 2025.

“The long-term average for February years (2002 to 2019) before Covid-19 is 118,800 migrant arrivals, 91,600 migrant departures, and a net migration gain of 27,300,” Stats NZ said.

Westpac senior economist Michael Gordon noted that net migrant inflows were picking up again, with a boost from students in particular in February.

“New Zealand saw a net inflow of around 5,400 migrants in February, the strongest monthly balance since December 2023,” Gordon said.

“With monthly inflows running higher than the same time a year ago, the annual balance rose to almost 33,000 people, the first increase since October 2023.”

For migrant arrivals in the February 2025 year, citizens of New Zealand were the largest group, with 25,100 arrivals. The next largest groups were citizens of India, 24,800; China, 19,000; and the Philippines, 13,100.

The other point of note in February was a pullback in departures of New Zealanders, after a spike in January, Gordon said.

This was “a result that we suspect may not survive future data revisions,” he said.

“Departures of New Zealanders remain well above pre-Covid levels but have eased off since their peak in early 2024.”

Aussie exodus

The other point of note in February was a pullback in departures of New Zealanders, after a spike in January – a result that we suspect may not survive future data revisions. Departures of New Zealanders remain well above pre-Covid levels, but have eased off since their peak in early 2024.

New data for migration with Australia was also released by Stats NZ – for the year to September 2024.

There was a net migration loss of 30,400 people to Australia in the year ended September 2024.

This was made up of a net loss of 29,100 New Zealand citizens and a net loss of 1200 non-New Zealand citizens.

This compared with a net migration loss to Australia of 26,100 in the year ended September 2023 – made up of a net loss of 25,400 New Zealand citizens and a net loss of 700 non-New Zealand citizens.

Traditionally, there had been a net migration loss from New Zealand to Australia, Stats NZ said.

This averaged at about 30,000 a year from 2004 to 2013, and 3000 a year from 2014 to 2019.

In the September 2024 year, 58% of New Zealand citizen migrant departures were to Australia.

Liam Dann is business editor-at-large for the New Zealand Herald. He is a senior writer and columnist, and also presents and produces videos and podcasts. He joined the Herald in 2003. To sign up for his weekly newsletter, click on your user profile at nzherald.co.nz and select “My newsletters”. For a step-by-step guide, click here.