Boris Johnson is forcing his opponents to face a hard but simple fact. If they want to stop him from pushing through a no-deal Brexit they are going to have to bring him down, and quickly.
By announcing plans to suspend parliament for up to five weeksthe UK prime minister has shown he is ready to provoke a full constitutional crisis to drive through his policy.
The fury of his opponents is unmanufactured. The Speaker of the House of Commons, John Bercow, will have spoken for many MPs when he referred to the prime minister's gambit as a "constitutional outrage". It may be legal but it is certainly an extreme step designed to run down the clock and stop parliament asserting its will.
Tories may yet come to regret the move, especially as Johnson is an unelected prime leader of a minority government. It is a useful rule that governments should not abuse the rules in ways they would describe as undemocratic if done by the opposition. This step shows a contempt for the parliament whose sovereignty Brexit was meant to restore.
Nonetheless, it also shows that, thus far, Johnson and his key strategists are outmanoeuvring their opponents.
Conservative rebels, Liberal Democrats and others have so far shrunk back from the one step which can definitively frustrate his plans. That would require them not only to vote against the government in a no-confidence motion but also install a caretaker government which seeks a Brexit delay and calls an election.
Johnson's move may be legal but it is certainly an extreme step designed to run down the clock and stop parliament asserting its will. Photo / AP
Johnson and his key strategist, Dominic Cummings, will have seen the disarray and have acted decisively. (One should note that for all the bravado, however, they would not feel the need to take this step if they were not worried about what parliament might do with the time.)
But even if his opponents do get their act together, the prime minister is clearly readying himself to fight a "people versus parliament" election and daring his rivals to take up the challenge. The early spending round planned for next week will give chancellor Sajid Javid the chance to throw cash at key areas — health, schools and police.
An early election may not be Johnson's preferred outcome, but he is signalling that he is ready for the fight.
Johnson has been careful to ensure that parliament will be sitting for the two weeks leading up to the Brexit date of October 31, but the five week suspension would wipe out weeks of parliamentary time and severely limit the options of his opponents.
Now, any meaningful effort to block no deal will have to take place next week. If it is left until after October 14, when Johnson plans for parliament to return, there is insufficient time for it to be stopped before an election.
The opponents of no deal could still seize control of parliamentary business and attempt to block it that way. To some extent, if they had the votes to block Johnson before, they still have them now. But against a government ready to force an election if necessary, this remains very hard.
Hopes that the Queen might refuse her prime minister's suggestion seem overly optimistic. There is talk of MPs passing a "humble address" asking her not to prorogue parliament, but this is a matter on which she takes the advice of her officials. That advice may well be that if parliament wants to prevent this, it needs to remove the prime minister.
Johnson's allies will argue that he is not breaching the constitution with this five-week delay, merely extending a period when parliament traditionally does not sit. He is also trying to prise concessions from the EU by signalling to Brussels that it cannot assume parliament will frustrate him.
All this is true but his intention is clear: he is seeking to subvert the will of the Commons.
Remainers have also stretched convention, but this move marks a whole new level.
It must now be likely that Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn will bring forward his vote of no confidence and challenge all those who proclaim themselves determined to stop a no-deal Brexit to live up to their rhetoric. It is a moment of truth for all who oppose no deal and rebel Tories, Lib Dems and independents are about to face an unpalatable choice.
Either way, Corbyn cannot lose by doing this.
The key fact, however, is this: Johnson has shown he is ready to do whatever it takes to get his way. His rivals must decide if they are ready to respond in kind. His bet seems to be that he wins either way. Either they will blink, or he fights an election on his terms.
But Johnson is playing fast and loose with parliamentary democracy and taking a monumental gamble to boot.
The correct step for a government frustrated by parliament is to go to the people in an election. If Brexiters are unwilling to do so it must be because they are not quite as confident that they speak for the people as they would have us believe.
