Asian tourist rebound to revive NZ industry

By Karyn Scherer

The tourism industry is bracing itself for a huge rebound in Asian tourists over the next six years.

According to forecasts presented at the industry's annual conference in Queenstown yesterday, around one in four visitors to New Zealand in 2005 is expected to come from Asia - up from around one in five last year.

The scenario painted by consultants McDermott Fairgray is the first comprehensive forecast of visitor numbers to be made public since 1991.

The publicly-funded six-month study predicts the spectacular growth in visitor arrivals over the past two decades will slow in the new millennium, but will still average nearly 6 per cent - or around 100,000 extra tourists - each year for the next six years.

If the forecasts prove correct, visitor numbers will pass the 2 million mark sometime in 2003. The numbers are a significant reduction from the Tourism Board's bold claim in 1991 that strong international growth in tourism would see visitor numbers pass the 3 million mark next year.

However, the industry is still buoyant about its potential contribution to the economy, with Statistics New Zealand confirming last month that it is the country's biggest export earner.

While Australia is expected to remain New Zealand's biggest source of tourists in the near future, Asia's strong recovery from last year's financial crisis is expected to see the region once again become a crucial market for the tourism industry.

Although dismal economic growth in Japan is expected to see only a small increase in Japanese tourists, visitors from other parts of Asia are expected to increase by an average of 12 per cent a year. South Korea, Thailand and Indonesia are expected to bounce back strongly, while the growth in visitors from China is also predicted to see double-digit growth.

In 1980, just 15,000 tourists arrived from Asia. By 1996, numbers shot up to 328,000, but plummeted last year following the Asian crisis. According to the study, numbers will again double to around 400,000 over the next six years.

Britain, Scandinavia and Ireland will also become increasingly important to the industry, with an expected average growth rate of 7.8 per cent a year. Australia is expected to grow by 4.2 per cent a year, the Americas by 3.9 per cent, and the rest of Europe by 3.8 per cent. The rest of the world is predicted to grow by 5.9 per cent.

Although the Sydney Olympics are expected to lure some Australian holidaymakers away from New Zealand next year, the industry is hoping Australia's decision to introduce a goods and services tax will make New Zealand a slightly more price-competitive holiday destination in the future.

Overall, the number of people coming to New Zealand for a holiday is expected to nearly double, from 742,000 last year to nearly 1.2 million in 2005. Business travel is also expected to grow strongly, with weaker growth in the number of people mostly wanting to visit friends and relatives.