The Auckland University of Technology (AUT) says unemployment may have already reached 4.8%, using a model designed to give an early warning of an economic downturn.
According to Stats NZ, the unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in the June quarter, up from 4.4% in the March quarter.
The university said its Unemployment Rate – Nowcast (UR–Now) model estimated the rate may have jumped to 4.8% in July.
That was based on data showing more people on benefits, and fewer numbers of filled jobs.