But it's likely that automation will happen more swiftly during the next economic downturn. Businesses are typically eager to implement cost-cutting technology as they lay off workers.
Some economic studies have found similar shifts toward automating production happened in the early part of previous recessions — and may have contributed to the "jobless recovery" that followed the 2008 financial crisis.
But with new advances in artificial intelligence, it's not just industrial and warehouse robots that will alter the American workforce. Self-checkout kiosks and computerized hotel concierges will do their part.
Most jobs will change somewhat as machines take over routine tasks, but a majority of US workers will be able to adapt to that shift without being displaced.
The changes will hit hardest in smaller cities, especially those in the heartland and Rust Belt and in states like Indiana and Kentucky, according to the report by the Washington think tank. They will also disproportionately affect the younger workers who dominate food services and other industries at highest risk for automation.
Some chain restaurants have already shifted to self-ordering machines ; a handful have experimented with robot-assisted kitchens .
Google this year is piloting the use of its digital voice assistant at hotel lobbies to instantly interpret conversations across a few dozen languages. Autonomous vehicles could replace short-haul delivery drivers. Walmart and other retailers are preparing to open cashier-less stores powered by in-store sensors or cameras with facial recognition technology.
"Restaurants will be able to get along with significantly reduced workforces," Muro said.
"In the hotel industry, instead of five people manning a desk to greet people, there's one and people basically serve themselves."
Many economists find that automation has an overall positive effect on the labor market, said Matias Cortes, an assistant professor at York University in Toronto who was not involved with the Brookings report. It can create economic growth, reduce prices and increase demand while also creating new jobs that make up for those that disappear.
But Cortes said there's no doubt there are "clear winners and losers." In the recent past, those hardest hit were men with low levels of education who dominated manufacturing and other blue-collar jobs, and women with intermediate levels of education who dominated clerical and administrative positions.
In the future, the class of workers affected by automation could grow as machines become more intelligent. The Brookings report analysed each occupation's automation potential based on research by the McKinsey management consulting firm.
Those jobs that remain largely unscathed will be those requiring not just advanced education, but also interpersonal skills and emotional intelligence.
"These high-paying jobs require a lot of creativity and problem-solving," Cortes said.
"That's going to be difficult for new technologies to replace."
- AP
