The Brussels bombings, killing 32 and injuring over 300, is a reminder of the sort of extreme event New Zealand businesses should be preparing for, according to a university researcher exploring the country's ability to recover from a devastating act of terrorism.
Dr Bridgette Sullivan-Taylor, senior lecturer in Strategy and International Business at the University of Auckland Business School, is continuing research she began in Britain in 2008 when she helped with the review of the UK's national security and Civil Contingencies Act under then Prime Minister, Tony Blair.
The research centres on how New Zealand businesses are guarding against such an 'extreme event' and whether they need to take the threat of something like Brussels more seriously; preparing in a way allowing quicker recovery and less damage to the economy.
But she says New Zealand's perceived isolation raises concerns that complacency here is shaping up very much as it did in the UK.
"Even after 9/11, the British public and many businesses didn't think it would happen to them and there wasn't really a mind shift until 7/7 [the London Underground bombings which killed 52 and injured 700 in July 2005] and 10/8 [the foiled terrorism plot involving liquid explosives aboard seven transatlantic airliners in August 2006]," says Sullivan-Taylor.
"The research has found that only when we experience an event do we relate to it on a personal level.
"Even in Britain, some businesses were either defensive - saying they had done everything they could - or fatalistic, saying that if it was going to happen, it's going to happen and there is little they could do about it."
That alarmed the UK government because, like New Zealand, many formerly public institutions like utility companies had been sold off; 80 per cent of critical public infrastructure in Britain was privately owned.
That meant fears about the ability of the country to recover if and when a terrorist action or natural disaster - like the increased flooding distressing the UK every year - occurred. There had been perceptions "the government would fix everything". The reality was companies had to have an inter-connected, "joined-up" system of preparedness, otherwise recovery would be slow, disjointed, unorganised and expensive.
Sullivan-Taylor uses the Christchurch earthquake and Cyclone Winston in Fiji as illustrations: "Everyone knows about Christchurch and we now have some new regulations and buildings which are earthquake-proofed. But the reality is, in places like Auckland, Christchurch is almost forgotten; no-one thinks about it. Fiji was a once-in-100-years event of devastation but has quickly dropped off the media radar."
Her research is exploring whether and how New Zealand companies, big and small, are prepared for such an event and the impetus needed to make "joined-up" responsiveness and resilience happen.
Examples in the UK included exercises performed at places like Birmingham's Bullring - the massive commercial and transport centre of the city where they regularly have drills designed to help businesses there cope with a wide range of extreme events, including terrorism.
Contrast that with Christchurch, says Sullivan-Taylor; businesses in the CBD didn't have business continuity plans or pre-established disaster recovery centres outside the city - and didn't recover, losing complete viability; "a hard lesson learnt".
The UK also has a National Risk Register: "You just go online to look at the risks in your area; users can see, free of charge, what's going on in a particular locality. Local resilience forums have also been set up for each local government area in the country."
The UK experience also suggests New Zealand companies may need to think outside their own organisation: "It's not just you and your business. In your area, there are other businesses and organisations located around you and others which inter-act with you.
How well are they prepared?
"You might have a plan but our community, business and otherwise, is a chain and we are only as strong as the weakest link."
Even if New Zealand businesses have staff like business continuity managers, UK experience suggests most will not have direct access to influence company boards - so their recommendations are passed up to a level where decisions are usually made using the rationale of immediate financial impact.
Her research spans SMEs to major corporates, CEOs and senior managers and those who run smaller businesses around New Zealand.
"We have to look at, if these extreme events can't be prevented, how we can best recover from them; it may be that some sort of government or external push, requiring companies to take these steps, is needed," she says.
It may result in measures like companies taking steps to increase security in likely major target areas, as at Birmingham's Bullring.
"That will see increased security measures but look at our own bio-hazard measures at the airports - before they came into force, people would have resisted these impositions. Now they realise we have no option but to collectively safeguard our economy through changes to security policies and practices.
"After 10/8, security regarding liquids at airports and on planes also became a fact of life - and no one thinks twice about it now. That's the sort of thing that might have to happen, and the acceptance that comes with it, to help businesses be less exposed to the ongoing trauma of extreme events.
"New Zealand has to realise we are connected to international events; distance will not protect us. What we want to find out through the research is how you can transfer that learning from one experience or disaster and develop the capability to be resilient to any kind of threat or extreme event."
# Bridgette Sullivan-Taylor helped inform the development of the new standard for Organisational Resilience BS 65000. This enables the ability of an organisation to anticipate, prepare for and respond and adapt to incremental change and sudden disruptions in order to survive and prosper".