Opinion: Go figure

One of the greatest challenges facing Auckland today is we don't know enough about ourselves, writes Edward Rooney.
Is it too soon to criticise Statistics Minister Maurice Williamson's decision to cancel the census on March 8?
"This is not the time to go door-to-door asking New Zealanders for information when they're dealing with the aftermath of the earthquake," Mr Williamson said. At the time, it seemed ghoulish to quibble - given the tragic events of September 4 and February 22 - but the downsides are quickly apparent.
Last week for instance, this newspaper tried to ascertain how many people had fled the shaken Canterbury region and are now looking for work and new beginnings in Auckland.
Seeking this information took us to the communications departments of Auckland Council, Red Cross, the Ministry of Social Development, Housing New Zealand, the Salvation Army and, eventually, financial transactions firm Paymark.
None could tell us more than a snippet of information, garnered where their operations happened to cross the paths of those northbound refugees. A census, as planned and paid for on March 8, would have given us the answer.
But our lack of information about the world immediately around us is much more troubling than just a reporter looking for some context to hang an article around.
Consider how much your neighbourhood, local shops, school and community amenities have changed since the last census early in 2006. Who are the people in these places now, and how have they changed from five years ago?
How can planners know what is right or wrong for parts of Auckland when making decisions based on such old data?
The Auckland Plan is a discussion document put out by Auckland Council on March 23 to prompt us all to think about what kind of future we want. Under the critical section of Continued Population Growth and Change we are treated to statistics - trotted out with an air of authority that belies their real status.
"Auckland is home to 33.4 per cent of New Zealanders, and by 2040 the population is projected to 2.1 million, some 40 per cent of the country's population.
"Between the 2001 and 2006 census, Auckland's population increased by an average of 1.2 per cent per annum, about twice the rate of the rest of New Zealand."
So have we continued to increase at twice the rate of the rest of New Zealand, or is it even faster?
No one can say for sure. Yet Auckland Council has set about delivering the Auckland Plan - a blueprint for building our region over the next 30 years.
This plan is being pieced together based on our feedback to statistics that have been "estimated" and "projected" from five-year-old figures.
Intriguingly, the same Auckland Plan discussion document estimates 21,000 people will shift to Auckland because of the earthquake and its consequences. The document does not say where this information comes from, simply sourcing it to "some reports".
The cancellation or postponement of a census is not without precedent. Since the first five-yearly census of the whole country in 1881, there have been two occasions when no census was held.
In 1931, the census was called off because of the Depression and the Government had cut the number of public servants. In 1941, when so many people in New Zealand were involved in World War II, the census was postponed until the end of the war. The 1946 census was moved to September 1945.
But we are in a much faster moving world. How fast? Like the many other questions we have, we just don't know.
- Edward Rooney is the chief reporter at The Aucklander.

Numbers crunched

Statistics New Zealand says it has not received any further advice from the Minister, Maurice Williamson, on when a census might be held. If you have filled in your 2011 census forms, destroy them. If they are blank, recycle or dispose of them. If you have already completed the 2011 census forms online or posted them, the forms will be held securely by Statistics New Zealand.