Warm weather on way after cold spell

The temperature is set to rise along with the sun in the next few weeks. Photo / Stephen Parker

If you have been feeling a little chilly this month don't fret, forecasters say we can expect a temperature rise in the next few weeks.

And it's looking like being a dry summer ahead.

Chris Brandolino, principal scientist and forecaster at NIWA, said Rotorua's mean temperature for the first 21 days of November was 13C.

That's 0.91C colder than the normal November mean.

"It has been that mean temperature that has been the really chilly time, and it's in the morning when people are getting up that they will be feeling it."

Looking ahead from November through to January NIWA looks at probable outcomes for air temperature, soil moisture and rainfall, giving each a probability for below, above or average.

"It's like a three sided coin, heads, tails or shoulders," Mr Brandolino said.

Mr Brandolino said that for the Bay of Plenty region temperature had a 40 per cent chance of staying average and a 20 per cent chance of being above average from now through to January, leaving a 40 per cent chance of being below.

But, the soil moisture had a 55 per cent chance of being below average, a 30 per cent chance of being average and a 15 per cent chance of being above.

He said that while 55 per cent did not sound like a lot, it was considered to be "quite high".

Rainfall, for the same time period, has a 50 per cent chance of being below average, a 35 per cent chance of being average and a 15 per cent chance of being above average.

Meteorologist Georgina Griffiths, from MetService, agreed Rotorua was in for a "somewhat drier summer over all than normal".

Mrs Griffiths said it had been a cooler November, but that was forecast to change in the next few weeks with temperatures set to rise back to normal.