The Rotorua suburbs that surged the most post-GFC

For all their differences, the three Rotorua suburbs of Lynmore, Utuhina and Fordlands have one thing in common: Their values have skyrocketed in the last decade.

CoreLogic has identified the top performing suburbs for property value growth since the pre-Global Financial Crisis peak - with Lynmore, Utuhina and Fordlands making the list.

The list, which excludes Auckland, shows Fordlands has enjoyed the strongest growth, with a 53.2 per cent rise in median value, from $124,400 in October 2007, the last market peak, to $192,300 in July 2018.

Lynmore and Utuhina follow closely behind with 50.6 per cent and 50 per cent rises respectively.

Lynmore home owners have seen median values go from $404,400 to $618,500, while Utuhina residents have seen a rise from $250,700 to $375,800.

First National Rotorua principal Ann Crossley said there were surprises in the figures.

"Lynmore is obvious. It has always been a popular suburb and everything that goes on the market sells.

"Fordlands is obvious but for the other end of the scale. Rotorua was in need of a huge correction of values. The high demand in the Fordlands area by investors and some home buyers has seen values rise.

"Utuhina, however, is somewhat surprising. It's a suburb that encompasses a broad area with varying levels of stock. There is a huge amount of first home buyer stock in there which is often competed for with investors, driving values up."

Crossley said she was surprised suburbs such has Ōwhata and Ngongotahā had not made the list.

"I imagine they're not too far off though. Rotorua had a huge boom so I imagine there would be many suburbs with rises in the 40 per cent range."

She said it was hard to identify the next upcoming suburb, but particular buyers tended to look out for certain attributes.

"Investors often look at older suburbs that typically have larger plots of land so they can put a second dwelling on and get two incomes. Other buyers tend to choose suburbs based on school zones, whether they like the street, and affordability."

LJ Hooker principal Malcolm Forsyth said the three suburbs were a reflection of what was happening city-wide.

"These are three very diverse, different suburbs. Lynmore and Fordlands are at opposite ends of the scale and Utuhina is smack-bang in the middle. Their growth is what is happening all across Rotorua."

Forsyth said there was confidence across all sections of the market and Rotorua as a whole was going from strength to strength.

"Back in 2007 we had people saying 'prices can't go any higher' but they did. From 2014 to 2017 Rotorua had huge growth. I think we are starting to see that growth levelling off and we are hearing people say again 'prices can't go any higher'. It's a very cyclical thing."

CoreLogic NZ senior research analyst Kelvin Davidson said it was interesting that many of the non-Auckland top suburbs were in and around Waikato and Bay of Plenty where the effects of Auckland's boom had spread out.

OneRoof editor Owen Vaughan said it should be no surprise to Rotorua that Lynmore was one of New Zealand's biggest risers since the Global Financial Crisis.

"The suburb is Rotorua's most expensive, by a long shot, and one of its most popular, although other parts of the city are starting to catch up, with growth in the suburb easing off in the last 12 months.

"At the other end of the scale is Fordlands, still Rotorua's cheapest suburb. The fact that values in Fordlands were very low to begin with will have played a role in the suburb's growth, but that doesn't tell the full story.

"Other similarly low-priced suburbs have not enjoyed the growth Fordlands has, and that may be due to the growth of Rotorua itself.

"The city has become a magnet for out-of-town buyers and it has been on the receiving end of increased development and investment. Both Fordlands and Utuhina are centrally located and will have felt the positive effects of that growth."