Rotorua's autumn looking good after a summer of two parts

SEASON: Autumn is now here. PHOTO/FILE

Rotorua could be in for a warm start to autumn, after a "near average" summer.

With summer now officially over, Niwa forecaster and meteorologist Chris Brandolino said a cooler than average autumn was unlikely for Rotorua, but that did not mean there would not be chilly days or frost.

Rotorua's average maximum afternoon temperature for March is 20.9C, 18C for April and 15.1C for May.

Rainfall was also looking to be about normal or below normal.

Mr Brandolino said with the way things were lining up, particularly during March, it looked like there would be more warm temperatures than cool ones for the city's upcoming outdoor events.

MetService meteorologist Tom Adams said the summer came in two parts for Rotorua.

December and January were much drier than normal, then in February a decent number of thunderstorms brought the rainfall back to near normal for summer, he said.

Similarly, temperatures lagged a long way behind in December and January, but picked up again in February and ended up just below average, Mr Adams said.

He said overnight temperatures were colder than average in December and January, but above average in February. It was the same pattern with wind - with a windier than usual December and January being evened out by a less breezy February.

"So in short, December and January were worse than normal [for farmers needing water and for the public wanting warm temperatures], but February redeemed on all fronts, with more rain and warmer temperatures than average, bringing the summer averages up to near average."

Rotorua airport average 1945-2016:
Total rain (mm): December, 92.8; January, 97.6; February, 120.5; Summer, 103.7
Mean temperature (C): December, 17.7; January, 17.9; February, 16.2; Summer, 17.3 Mean daily max temperature: December, 23.0; January, 23.1; February, 21.2; Summer, 22.4
Mean daily min temperature: December, 12.3; January, 12.7; February, 11.2; Summer, 12.1
Average wind speed (kt): December, 7.3; January, 6.5; February, 7.7; Summer, 7.2

Rotorua airport average 2017:
Total rain (mm): December, 53.0; January, 43.6; February, 229.8; Summer, 108.8
Mean temperature (C): December, 15.6; January, 16.7; February, 18.4; Summer, 16.9
Mean daily max temperature: December, 20.8; January, 22.5; February, 22.8; Summer, 22.0
Mean daily min temperature: December, 11.5; January, 12.2; February, 12.7; Summer, 12.1
Average wind speed (kt): December, 8.0; January, 9.0; February, 6.0; Summer, 7.7