High temperature records are falling across the Bay and residents are basking in - and seeking relief - from the heat. While summer's heat is temporary, experts say climate change is not. For decades, we've discussed how to mitigate and adapt to more extreme weather. What steps are neighbours taking?
Rotorua residents coping with heat in midst of climate change
People cooling off at Lake Okareka. Photo / File
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Rotorua Party Ice delivery driver Jess Pussell says she thought the heat would increase demand for ice, which hasn't really happened.
"We've been quite steady. I think with the heatwave, it's the afternoons that are hotter and we don't operate in the afternoons. We work until three."
Tauranga's Klassic Ice distribution manager Ivan Harris says the business has been busy during the past two weeks.
"Especially salt ice and normal ice. These two long weekends I think we have a lot of people turning this weekend into a long weekend. It's pretty full-on when it stays like this," Harris says.
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Harris says while it's pleasant to walk into the chiller "you come out into the heat and I don't know if you're better off. Our drivers are getting tired. They're doing a lot of work in the heat, which can be quite exhausting."
Cooling Cows and Future Planning
Colin Guyton farms 600 dairy cows in Reporoa.
Guyton says he tries to put the animals in shaded paddocks.
"It's terribly hot working in the afternoon, so we have sprinklers in the yard that sprinkle the cows with water and we have trolleys in the cowshed where they can drink water."
Guyton says the regional council generally allows farmers 70 litres per cow per day but, in the heat, they're drinking up to 115 litres.
"They're getting sufficient food, but there's not a lot of moisture in it compared to a normal diet."
Guyton says the heat takes a toll on humans, too.
"Everyone has to be understanding that the work rate may not be quite as good as normal. You definitely have to have water on you."
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As for climate change, Guyton says we must learn to adapt, although we won't change climate in a hurry.
Federated Farmers national vice president Andrew Hoggard, a dairy farmer in the Manawatu, says farmers must adapt to climate change according to location.
While he says temperature rise is a long-term trend, he's seen changes.
"I've been on this farm 20 years and, over that time, I've noticed our winters are getting easier to handle. We're not getting as cold in the winter and getting better grass growth.
"I'm now milking some cows through winter and drying them off from mid-January through to mid-March, which makes it a little bit easier."
Hoggard says policies and procedures are important, but so is flexibility.
"You plan as much as you can and you just sort of roll with the punches and adopt your plans going forward."
The Ministry for the Environment says the agriculture sector was responsible for around 48 per cent of emissions in 2017. A Federated Farmers' survey last month showed regulation and compliance costs, especially in the environmental space, remains the single greatest concern for farmers, as they would likely impact farm production and business expenses.
Burning Question
Niwa's fire weather page lists forests in Tauranga and Kawerau as having a "very high" fire danger. Rotorua and Te Puke are high, and Ōpōtiki and Waihī are extreme. Nearly every locality's scrub fire danger in the Central North Island is rated "extreme".
A prohibited fire season has been declared for the Bay of Plenty Coast, Central Lakes, and Pumicelands.
Principal rural fire officer Steve Webb says all fire permits have been suspended in those areas, and only gas and charcoal barbecues can be used.
He says people must also use caution when operating equipment such as lawnmowers and grinders, so sparks don't start a brush fire.
Bush fires in South-eastern Australia this season have killed at least 32 people and destroyed almost 2000 homes. Nearly five million hectares have burned or are currently burning, according to an article in last week's The Guardian. At least a billion animals have died.
President of the Australian Academy of Science Professor John Shine said in a statement last month "the scale of these bushfires is unprecedented anywhere in the world".
Shine said In terms of hectares burnt the Australian fires are the largest to affect any of the mega diverse countries — larger than the 2019 Amazon and 2019 Californian fires. The release also says the country's unique biodiversity means "the impact of the fires on species extinction will be ongoing after the bushfire season".
The document on science.org.au says the combination of other factors also make this fire unprecedented in Australia's history. These include: the intensity of the fires early in Australia's fire season; Current dry, warm and windy conditions; unusual fire behaviour; the indirect and direct impact on Australia's environment, including greenhouse gas emissions and severe air pollution across population centres.
New Zealand's air quality has been affected by Australia's fires. Bush fires lift dust and ash high up into the atmosphere. Smoke particles blow 2000km across the Tasman. Especially last month, Kiwis saw orange, hazy skies. The Guardian reported New Zealand air quality levels last month from bush fires had declined to "code orange" in several locations, classified as unhealthy for people with conditions such as asthma and other lung conditions.
Horticulture New Zealand chief executive Mike Chapman wrote on the organisation's website last month consistent hot temperatures and fires in the future will further restrict the ability of Australia to grow produce. He says New Zealand will likely see a reduction in imported Australian produce and a greater demand for New Zealand grown produce.
Chapman says climate change adaptation and water quality are major challenges this year.
"The message from Australia is not to delay our work and, if anything, to speed up what we are doing before we become like Australia and find it is too late. We need to take seriously Australia's warning of what may become reality in the future."
He says New Zealand can make some difference, however small, in addressing climate change.
"However, where we can make a major impact is with food production.
"Our first priority needs to be feeding New Zealand in the knowledge that imported food will become more costly and less available as countries like Australia face climate change.
"We need to become food supply self-resilient. Once we are, we can then turn our attention to what we can grow to help feed others such as Australia. To achieve these goals, we need a food supply or security plan and policy, and we need to act now."
Trends and Forecasts
Record high temperatures have been toppling throughout the Bay. Te Puke had its hottest day on record last Saturday at 33C. Whakatāne hit 36.4C on Monday, breaking its previous record of 33.3C. Places where the temperature soared without breaking records included Rotorua, with 30.2C on Monday, Tauranga, at 33.2C and Kawerau, 35C.
Rotorua's highest-recorded temperature was 32.2C in 2019. Tauranga's was 33.7C and Kawerau hit 37C, both in 1983.
The Ministry for the Environment website says best estimates of New Zealand temperatures are for an expected increase of about 1degC by 2040, and 2degC by 2090.
"However owing to the different emission scenarios and model climate sensitivities, the projections of future warming cover a wide range: 0.2–2.0degC by 2040 and 0.7–5.1degC by 2090."
Experts have long warned we have more to contend with than heat.
Niwa forecaster Chris Brandolino says as the planet continues to heat up due to greenhouse gas emissions, "the warming earth will load the dice and increase the probability of extreme weather events and make them more extreme".
"Temperatures will get higher, we'll get more extreme rainfall - binge rainfall."
Brandolino says the West Coast is expected to see more rainfall decades from now, while the east coast will get less. "For example, we might have extended periods of no rain for 40 days, then in a day or two, we'll get a month's worth of rain."
MetService predicts well above average February temperatures for the North Island, except for Wellington (near average). For all North Island regions, the service predicts a dry first half of February, an increased chance of getting useful rain the second half, but still expects rainfall to be hit and miss. The West Coast, Southland and Otago could see a wetter week next week.
Local Action
Bay of Plenty Regional councillors voted to declare a climate emergency last year.
Namouta Poutasi, general manager - strategy and science, says the council is working to deliver on its first Climate Change Action Plan. Poutasi says the focus to date has included establishing an emissions baseline to identify needed improvements and measure reductions over time; refurbishing buildings in Tauranga, Whakatāne and Rotorua and including new technologies to reduce waste and improve energy efficiency.
Poutasi says the council has replaced five public network buses and four regional council cars with electric vehicles and has facilitated a bulk purchase deal for staff to buy e-bikes.
"Staff and councillors have also been taking a closer look at a range of printing and purchasing decisions we make and exploring more sustainable alternatives or sources."
She says the council has also commissioned Niwa to produce an updated climate-change projections report for the region in 2019, due for release this month
"The report will help to inform our decisions as well as those of other agencies, businesses and members of the public in preparing for and adapting to the impacts of climate change."
Council deputy chairwoman Jane Nees voted for the declaration last year but says she's been frustrated with the pace of the council's response.
"I wish we were moving faster and involving more people".
Nees says climate change was the most important issue the council had dealt with.
Rotorua Mayor Steve Chadwick says everyone has a role to play in mitigating effects of climate change, including local councils.
"Because a large part of our core business involves infrastructure maintenance, we're always assessing the ways in which we can do our part to combat the effects of climate change.
"Campaigns relating to water conservation, fire restrictions are just one of the ways we encourage our communities to do their part."
Chadwick says sustainability is integrated throughout the council's strategies relating to thriving communities, stormwater and water management, and a focus on enhancing green spaces.
She says a discussion document is set for public release this year for engagement before developing a climate-change response plan.
Waikato University professor Barry Barton, who teaches the school's new climate-change law course, says greenhouse gas emissions involve all aspects of the economy and how we live.
"The problem is a big, complex one. For example, someone deciding to buy a new car and considering the price of fuel might be affected by the Emissions Trading Scheme, [companies importing fuel pay into the ETS] and that might affect their decisions. We also need to make sure they have good access to a reasonably priced efficient car that doesn't cause too many emissions. We can't just rely on one tool, there are a lot of different things to do."
Waikato law lecturer Jennifer Campion says climate change is not easy to compartmentalise for local governments.
"Last year's local government elections, we saw climate change to be an engaging issue, and, particularly for our youth, they expect we will be taking action."
Campion says examples of action include how we lay out cities, whether cycle paths go to schools, as well as adjustments in the transport network. "Local government has a lot to contribute there and a lot to do on the adaptation side, making sure we're ready for the change in climate and making sure we don't put people in harm's way from flooding or coastal vulnerability."
