Lakes District Health Board says it has a Covid resurgence and winter plan for its hospitals. Photo / Andrew Warner
Lakes District Health Board says it has a Covid resurgence and winter plan for its hospitals. Photo / Andrew Warner
A public health expert warns peaks of Covid-19 cases and the flu at the same time could put "a real burden" on hospitals this winter.
University of Waikato professor of public health Ross Lawrenson says he is projecting a rise in Covid cases in winter and fears a "flu peak"at the same time.
"A combination of the two will put a real burden on hospitals, so we really are recommending people who are vulnerable to get their flu vaccine."
But the Lakes District Health Board says it has a "Covid resurgence and winter plan" and will continue to manage hospital and health services. Emergency and acute services will continue to be available.
The board is also urging anyone eligible for a free flu vaccination to get it now to avoid the risk of needing hospital care.
It comes as data obtained under the Official Information Act from the board showed weekly average Covid-related absences of its clinical workforce in March and April. For one week in March, there was an average of 57 nurses and healthcare assistants and 15 doctors absent from work.
University of Waikato professor of public health Ross Lawrenson. Photo / Supplied
Lawrenson said projections showed there would be another rise in Covid cases because public health measures had been relaxed and people's vaccinations were waning and becoming less effective.
People also stayed indoors more during winter so they were more prone to picking up infections from each other, he said.
"We obviously had a big peak ... that's slowed now, so the number of cases are not going down any more.
But the rise of Covid cases was "complex" and came down to when people had their vaccinations, when people got infected and changes in public health and social behaviour.
"Putting all that together, our best bet is that in June [or] July our numbers will be going back up again.
"How big that new rise will be we don't know, but it is a concern."
Lawrenson said he was worried about people ending up in hospital with Covid and people getting reinfected.
"If you get reinfected, you can pass it on to a vulnerable older person who is not immune or who's had a vaccine that [has] waned."
He was concerned about those aged over 65 as "a large proportion" of them had not been infected yet.
"That's more our concern about people who say, 'Well I've had it now so I don't have to worry or wear a mask'.
"If they can still get reinfected, they're unlikely to go into hospital but they are likely to infect other people."
Lakes District Health Board had an average of 57 nurses and healthcare assistants absent from work due to Covid-related reasons for one week in March. Photo / Andrew Warner
A Lakes District Health Board spokesperson said it had a "Covid resurgence and winter plan" and would continue to manage hospital and health services.
"This may mean the DHB needs to postpone some elective services, however emergency and acute services will continue to be available."
The board urged everyone who was eligible for a free flu vaccination to get it now to avoid needing hospital care.
"There has been very little flu over the past two years but this winter there's a much greater risk of catching the flu because borders are open again and people are now mixing a lot more.
"This means it is more important than ever to get your flu vaccination."
The spokesperson said people could get a Covid vaccine or booster at the same time as a free flu vaccine.
Lakes District Health Board provided weekly average absent figures for March and April of its clinical workforce for Covid-related reasons, under the Official Information Act.
This included doctors, nurses, midwives, health care assistants and allied health professionals. The board employed 934 clinical staff at Rotorua and Taupō hospitals.
Data showed the week starting March 14 had the highest number of absences in March and April. That week, there was an average of 57 nurses and healthcare assistants, 15 doctors, six midwives and 16 allied health professionals absent.
By the end of April absences had dropped. For the week of April 25, there was an average of eight doctors, 18 nurses and healthcare assistants, no midwives and eight allied health professionals absent.
Lakes District Health Board was asked what the flow-on effects were now of these absences and the impact on remaining staff and patients. The board referred to a response published in March.
On March 14, the Rotorua Daily Post reported daily elective surgeries would be cut by a quarter at Rotorua and Taupō hospitals, with more than 1800 people on the waiting list.
At the time, Lakes District Health Board chief operating officer Alan Wilson said hospitals would be dropping one theatre per day, reducing planned surgeries by 25 per cent. This would affect about four patients per day.
"Covid-19 and staffing issues have had a significant impact on patient waiting times," a Lakes DHB spokesperson said.
When asked how the pandemic had affected wait times in Rotorua Hospital's emergency department, head of Rotorua Hospital Emergency Department Dr Suzanne Moran said staff workload has increased.
"The pandemic has had an impact on how long people are waiting to be seen in ED because the workload on staff has increased."
Flu vaccinations
Yearly flu vaccinations are free for: • Pregnant people. • People aged 65 and over. • Māori and Pasifika people aged 55 and over. • People who have a long-term medical condition like diabetes, asthma, or a heart condition (aged six months+). • children aged four or younger who have been in hospital with respiratory illness such as asthma.
• If you are eligible for a free flu shot, contact your GP or healthcare provider to make a booking. If you are not eligible for a free flu jab, and not covered by an employer-funded programme, it costs between $25 and $45 depending on the vaccine and provider.
• Contact your GP or local pharmacy to find out how much they charge and when you can book.
