New poll: Labour out in front, but NZ First has fallen

Senior Political Correspondent·NZ Herald·

14 Sep, 2017 06:00 AM2 mins to read

We put Labour's tax delay announcement under the microscope to find out what it means for voters and where it leaves National with just 9 days until the election

Labour is leading National by four points in tonight's 1News Colmar Brunton poll, with Labour up 1 point to 44 per cent and National also up one to 40 per cent.

The gap between the two big parties has stayed the same as last week's Colmar Brunton poll.

The biggest movement has been in support for the smaller parties, with New Zealand First down three points to 6 per cent and the Greens up two points to 7 per cent.

The results are markedly different from Newshub's Reid Research poll on Tuesday this week, which had National ahead on 47.3 per cent (up four points in ) and Labour on 37.8 per cent (down 1.6) and the Greens out of Parliament altogether. New Zealand First was on 6 per cent.

But few believed that National had taken such a big lead and most party insiders thought the contest was much closer.

The significance of tonight's 1 News poll is that New Zealand First does not have the "kingmaker" role that it has held in most polls this term.

The full 1 News Colmar Brunton results:

- Labour 44 (up 1)
- National 40 (up 1)
- Greens 7 (up 2)
- NZ First 6 (down 3)
- The Opportunities Party 2 (no change)
- Maori Party 1 (down 1)
- Act 0.6 (no change)

If the poll were translated to seats in the House Labour's 55 and the Green Party's 8 would allow it form a majority coalition Government, without needing New Zealand First.

National with 48 seats and New Zealand First's seven, would not be able to form a Government, even with the Maori Party's one and Act's 1.

Jacinda Ardern is ahead of Bill English in the preferred Prime Minister stakes on 34 per cent (down 1), with Bill English on 32 per cent (up one). New Zealand First leader Winston Peters is steady on five percent.

In the first Colmar Brunton poll after Jacinda Ardern took over the Labour leadership, Labour had climbed to 37 per cent against National's 44 per cent.

By the second poll, in late August, Labour was ahead of National by 43 per cent to 41 per cent.

Last week's had Labour steady on 43 per cent and National slipping to 39 per cent.