Mike Hosking: This could be the Labour-led Government's stroke of genius

Opinion

This Government's multi-billion dollar regional package, released with grandiose fanfare on Friday, could be a stroke of political genius.

It wraps up a bunch of stuff the Government would do anyway in a nicely packaged programme with a title and tangible outcomes people can get their head around.

Anyone can order a cheeseburger, small fries and a drink, but it's better when it's called a Happy Meal. This is the Government's Happy Meal.

A couple of ground rules though, before we get too carried away.

Firstly, you need to work out what wasn't going to get done. And that is the National Party's claim: a lot of the stuff was in the pipeline anyway. So extract that out and look at what would not have been done, and those are the potential gains to be made.

Secondly, and probably more importantly, how much of the money leads to genuine growth expansion and ongoing prosperity as opposed to it being a local sugar hit that dies when the money runs out? There is a good reason some of regional New Zealand has trouble, and that is because people and businesses can't, or don't, want to operate there. The Government throwing money in works as long as the money is available. But if that's all there is, that's little more than a welfare programme and a recipe for long-term disappointment and disaster.

When Shane Jones visited Whanganui in December, the Chronicle gently reminded him the town needed investment. Image / File

And thirdly, and this is critical to remember, a lot of this package is sold on the premise of misery, woe, and deprivation. And in reality, that is little more than spin, because it must never be forgotten this country is booming and regional New Zealand is in many respects is leading the way.

The unemployment rate nationally is 4.5 per cent. Low by any ones measure, in certain parts of regional New Zealand it's 3 per cent or less. It's as good as anywhere in the world, and there are parts where literally there are no unemployed people.

So selling this package as some sort of regional saviour is gilding the lily. However, you'll note a large chunk went to Northland. I doubt many would argue it doesn't need help.

Gisborne? Same story. So the trick is to spend the money on something that lasts.

Whether a $9 million roundabout up north is it, I severely doubt. But the Wairoa-Napier rail line might well be. I like rail. I like its efficiencies, and its potential. I like the idea of boosting ports regionally. Whether money in versus money back equates is the question. In other words, whether there is enough business for a rail line or another port is the tricky bit. It's the risky bit, but on the surface it looks promising.

As a piece of politics, this is clever. As a piece of business, the jury's out. But if it works, and businesses and locals see the jobs and income and investment, you know where the votes are going as a result. This, more than any of the reviews and tire-kicking time-wasting committees that are set up, will define this Government's first term.