So who do you reckon?
Of course we don't know, and when we don't know, we guess. And there has been a lot of guessing going on. But by this afternoon, National will have a new leader, might have a new deputy leader, and potentially a new era will begin.
This is a big deal day given the Nats haven't really had an open contest for years, and we have all been the better for it. As much as some may like a headline and a bit of drama, the stability and consistency of the past decade - indeed the eight years before that with Helen Clark - have served this country very well.
When there is nothing to see or speculate on, that's when we concentrate on the important stuff like running the country. And this country has been run well now for about 16 years.
The next two-and-a-half are still under consideration by the jury and, depending on how today goes, the question will be whether National is in a position in 2020 to make it a race. Will they be tipped out of office or merely fumble through a second term in Opposition? Which is why the so-called fill-in leader has been such a futile and naïve argument.