Labour needs to dump Dr Cullen

OPINION:

Down in the polls by up to 25 per cent, what can Labour do to save itself?

To start with, Labour's plight is not as bad as it appears. The 25 per cent lead in the TVNZ poll is fantasy land. The Roy Morgan poll and the Herald poll are more realistic with a 17 per cent lead.

In addition, most of the minor parties (eg the Greens) are more sympathetic to Labour than National. If NZ First and the Maori Party could also be persuaded to back Labour, the real gap drops to around 6 per cent.

How to erode that?

First of all there will be bribes for every special interest group under the sun. Last week for example, Labour announced $11.5 million for a new music school in Wellington. That'll get the musicians on side (they hope).

Then the Government will pump us so full of propaganda it'll come out our ears. They plan to spend an incredible $7.4 million of taxpayers' money "informing" us about KiwiSaver. In reality the adverts are thinly disguised party political broadcasts.

But to really close the poll gap Labour needs to do three big things: close the policy gaps, create a new image, and knock down the Nats.

John Key has sought to reduce or eliminate any gaps between perceptions of National and Labour that favour Labour, so that the focus shifts on to the gaps that favour National. Hence his ruthless dispatch of the anti-nuclear policy as an issue, and championing the plight of the underclass.

Now it is Labour's turn to close those gaps. They did it with their Maori policy after Orewa. Now they must do it with tax policies and nanny policies.

This will actually be very hard, as it goes against all their instincts. But time will take the edge off the outrage over smacking. As for taxes, they will have to cut them, and set out a programme of continuing cuts (just as National promises).

But for that to be credible, after reneging on the "chewing gum" cut, Labour must convince people that it has turned over a new leaf, and its new behaviour is not just election-year window-dressing.

A ruthless clearing out of the list MP cupboard will help.

Labour has a fair collection of ex-local MPs who have returned on the list. A few are worth keeping, such as ex-Otago MP David Parker. But most were dross to begin with and should be eliminated. New faces, even if just on local election hoardings, will help create a sense of freshness.

Reshuffling ministers also helps a bit, but not much because few people will take much notice. To really make a difference you have to change the star lineup, and there are only two stars who count: Clark and Cullen. Dumping Clark would be lunacy. She is still Labour's biggest asset by far. So Cullen has to go.

More than anything else Labour could do, this would signal a change of direction for Labour and enable it to dump the undesired baggage of never-ending tax rises.

Cullen needs to be replaced with someone who can credibly present a new direction, ie not Trevor Mallard. That would be ridiculous. Phil Goff could do it. Even better would be someone really new such as David Parker or Clayton Cosgrove.

Labour must act fairly soon or the changes will look like election-year panic, shuffling the deckchairs on the Titanic or just cynical window-dressing. They must also be careful to preserve what reputation they still have for competent management, and being a known safe pair of hands.

The third part of the strategy is making National look bad. And Key is the key to that, just as Clark is the key to Labour's chances of re-election. Key's balloon must be punctured.

But personal attacks are a dangerous game, as Labour learned when Clark talked about "cancerous" Don Brash at the last election.

But the stakes are high, and the need is desperate. Expect a long and nasty election campaign. But then, aren't they always?