Tonight could spell the end of the road for some politicians, including senior MPs and even ministers who may soon be looking for new jobs.
If the polls prove right, the axe will fall this election for dozens of MPs including several senior ministers from the former Labour Government.
The Herald Poll of Polls has put Labour on 26.8 per cent, and, on those numbers, the party could lose nearly half of its caucus of 64 MPs, including senior ministers.
STORY CONTINUES AFTER THE LIVE BLOG
Kia ora, everyone! Welcome to the Herald's live coverage of the 2023 election campaign.
Join our live show and stay with us through the evening as we bring you the latest updates on the results as they come in.
Here are our coverage highlights and what you may have missed so far:
That's a wrap, folks - but only for today! Thank you for joining us for our special election night coverage.
Join us bright and early tomorrow morning for the latest updates on the election.
“Winston Peters is the ultimate political phoenix,” the NZ First leader’s deputy Shane Jones said last night as the victory party danced on in the Bay of Islands.
It was a triumphant Peters who emerged to thank supporters.
“We have done the impossible,” he told a crowd of 150 at the Duke of Marlborough on Russell’s waterfront.And it seems he might yet to go further.
NZ First’s six per cent of the vote is enough to get back to Parliament but not quite enough to force the National Party into a deal.But it might yet be, and that isn’t lost on Peters.
Te Pati Maori’s success and the overhang created in Parliament means National might - just might - need the eight MPs that NZ First is taking back to Parliament.
Peters arrived to speak at 9.30pm - as late as he could delay thanking supporters before many left on the 10pm ferry to Paihia across the harbour.
He delayed and delayed as cameras clustered at the entrance to the Duke where supporters and new MPs partied inside. And then, in his contrarian fashion, he dodged the media scrum by slipping in through a side door.
Peters took to the stage, danced a jig as the music played and then launched into a short speech.
In it, Peters appeared to offer a carrot and a stick to the National Party.
After thanking supporters, he showed the spectre of NZ First in opposition: “We’ve always known that in a great democracy that people who are elected and the officials must be held to account.”
He said NZ First would do this - it would speak out and “raise the roof when other people won’t raise a finger”.
But then he showed the constructive NZ First - better in the fold than out. He warned of tough times and parlous government finances.
“Don’t forget all the promises made. There is a moment of reality seriously that is seriously needed. If we don’t to that, we go on a slide. If we can help, we will.”
He later smiled, and said he was simply being “patriotic”.
NZ First was launched in 1993 by Peters after he left the National Party. It has formed or supported governments with National and Labour, most recently in 2017 when it lent its 7.2 per cent to support Labour into power and make Jacinda Ardern prime minister.
Then in 2020 it crashed out of Parliament with 2.6% of the vote - not the first time it had failed to reach the 5 per cent threshold.
But its exit was bundled with speculation over whether it was Peters’ last hurrah. He had entered Parliament first in 1978 and was approaching his 80s.
There was never a challenge or any question NZ First would contest this year’s election. Peters’ path to power started with town hall meetings in March of which he has held dozens across the country. He picked up support from all the old places - and courted a new constituency in the conspiracy-courting community that has developed since Covid-19.
Peters told the crowd how “they laughed” when he had spoken of NZ First making a comeback.“They are not laughing now,” he said. And already he was looking ahead: “Hang on, there’s an election in 2026 and we’re getting ready for it.”
After speaking, Peters hosted a brief press conference. He took two questions and then asked for others. Without waiting to hear a response, he disappeared back through the same door from which he had suddenly emerged five minutes earlier.
After Peters left, Shane Jones said it was hard to express the enormous amount of work it took across the party to “claw our way back”.And, like Peters, he wasn’t ready to call the election with National and Act running the country. Yes, he acknowledged, there would be an overhang because of the success enjoyed by Te Pati Maori. And that meant Act’s addition to National’s MPs might not be enough.
“What a rich irony that the overhang of The Maori Party may increase the value of New Zealand First.”
Luxon thanked Nicola Willis, Chris Bishop and all of his caucus for their relentless campaigning.
"You have given it you all and we have splashed blue all throughout the country," he said.
"Tonight it has all been worth it," he said.
He thanked the families of all candidates for their sacrifices.
He said while being elected Prime Minister is a great honour, "I have always said marrying you would be my greatest achievement" to his wife Amanda.
"I cannot wait to get stuck in," he said.
"We all share an interest of living in a safe, stable country that celebrates fairness and wants the best for every New Zealander," Luxon said.
"It's what unites us that matters to me," he said.
He offered a special thanks to everyone that voted for National.
"For all those that didn't vote for National, we won't let you down either," he said.
He thanked the people of Botany who returned him as MP.
Luxon said together "we will make this an even better country".
He said turning the country around may take time and it's going to be hard work.
He said he wanted to lead the country together.
"Tonight you have given us the mandate to move New Zealand forward," Luxon said.
"Although this campaign was long and negative, New Zealanders listened to National, but more importantly National listened to New Zealanders," he said.
STORY CONTINUES
Former Labour Party leader David Cunliffe says it can be deeply devastating and distressing for those who fail to make it back to Parliament after an election, and that there needs to be support services given to outgoing MPs.
“Two things will stand out at this election I feel,” said Cunliffe.
“One is that the combined votes of Labour and National will be at a historic low ... and the second is that Labour has come from a historic high, being the first party to get more than 50 per cent ... to something approaching historic lows.”
Cunliffe said it was important for parliamentarians not to view what they do as “a job” but rather a “service to make the country better”.
“My advice to young MPs is to get some life experience first so that when you lose your seat or if you seek to step down, then there is something else that you can do,” he said.
“Don’t treat being an MP as a lifetime employment and don’t assume that it’s always going to be there.”
Cunliffe said he was lucky and retired from politics at the 2017 election on his own terms, and he had previous professional experience as a management consultant to draw on. He now runs his own consulting firm called Polis.
“We go into it knowing that politics go in cycles and tides, and being an MP isn’t a job for life and it shouldn’t be,” he said.
“It make sense therefore if people go into Parliament after having a career first, and have that something to go back to afterwards.”
Cunliffe said losing a place in Parliament can “trying for MPs whatever the circumstances”.
“It’s a huge adjustment to make, and if it’s sudden then it becomes even more trying and it can be deeply devastating and distressing,” he said.
Cunliffe said he knows of MPs who have made more money outside of Parliament and others who struggled to find their niche, adjust to life outside politics or find meaningful work.
He felt outgoing MPs should also have access to “counselling and practical support”.
“If we accept as New Zealanders that our parliament is important to all of us and we’ll be better off if it functions well, in business you would invest in training and support for your key people and I don’t think we do that enough for our MPs,” Cunliffe said.
“We need to provide support and counselling to MPs on the way out. Some might not need it but for some even helping with writing their CV and advice on what jobs they should apply to.
“For many, they would have been out of the job market for a long time, so such support will be really good.”
MPs leaving Parliament however don’t go empty-handed. Those who resigned or lost their seat at the election still get paid a salary of three months, with some possibly getting lifelong perks.
All departing MPs will lose their taxpayer-funded travel and accommodation subsidies except for a return flight to Wellington to clear out their offices.
MPs who served three terms before 1999 would get free international travel, capped at the cheapest Air New Zealand business class flight to London each year and 12 domestic return flights.
However, this perk no longer applies, as the current longest continuously serving members of Parliament (known as the Father and Mother of the House) are National’s Gerry Brownlee and Labour’s Nanaia Mahuta.
Both have been MPs since 1996.
Volcanic ash has been identified more frequently in the steam and gas plume.
