The polls have closed. Vote counting is under way.
Depending on how close the election is, we should have a fairly good idea of who is in a position to form a government by 11.30pm tonight, which is when the Electoral Commission has set itself a target of having 95 per cent of preliminary results available.
The Commission has an earlier target too, saying it wants 50 per cent of results published by 10pm.
Advanced voting makes this easier. Beginning at 9am today, advance votes were counted by hand at secure electorate headquarters across the country. After polls close at 7pm, what are known as “ordinary votes” - Electoral Commission-speak for votes cast on the day that are not special votes - are counted.
STORY CONTINUES AFTER THE LIVE BLOG
STORY CONTINUES
The surge in advance voting, which is less popular than last election, but still well-used, makes the count a bit easier, given the votes can be tallied earlier. As always, vote tallies are regularly updated on the night, published by the Electoral Commission and fed through to media organisations - you’ll be able to follow live vote tallies on the Herald’s website.
Special votes can be cast from around the globe (although most special votes are still cast in New Zealand by people outside their electorates on polling day).
All votes are then manually re-counted for accuracy before the final result, including special votes, is announced on November 3.
Those dates are crucial to understanding what comes next, particularly as the polls suggest the result could be close. The most likely outcome is National-Act-NZ First getting the numbers to form a government, but there’s also a chance National and Act could get over the line on their own, and there appears to be a surge on the left taking place at the moment too - it may just be enough to get them over the line.
If the result is clear tonight, as it was at the last election, expect talks between the winners to begin pretty quickly. Last election, the deal between Labour and the Greens was signed before the final votes were published.
Sunday is likely to see a polite phone call between the victorious parties, indicating a willingness to enter into formal negotiations which could begin as soon as Monday.
Even Winston Peters, who earned a reputation for holding out until special votes are counted, has indicated a willingness to begin talks earlier if the result is clear.
It’s not obvious what a clear result looks like. Last election, National lost two seats, and Labour and Te Pāti Māori each gained one at the final count, so if the final result shows a margin of just a couple of seats, coalition talks really will depend on specials.
There is also the challenge of the Port Waikato byelection, which will see National’s Andrew Bayly, the likely winner, resign his list seat and enter Parliament as an electorate MP, giving National an additional list MP and Parliament a minimum of 121 MPs. The real beneficiary of this is the 120th MP added to Parliament by the Sainte-Lague method (long story), which on current polling is likely to be a National MP.
If Parliament has 121 MPs, the magic number to form a majority will be 61. There is a chance we could have a repeat of the 2008-2011 Parliament which had 122 MPs, thanks to the Te Pāti Māori triggering an overhang.
Te Pāti Māori then, as now, is performing well in electorate races, but has a relatively low share of the party vote. If the party wins more electorates than its party vote entitles it to have, then it may trigger an additional overhang seat, benefiting the left bloc and bringing the total number of MPs needed to form a government to 62.
The shape of the government will be clear, at the very latest, by November 3. Unless NZ First’s Winston Peters and Labour’s Chris Hipkins, through some feat of rhetoric, manage to wriggle out of their respective rule-outs, the government will either be formed by National-Act-NZ First, National-Act, or Labour-Greens-Te Pāti Māori. No other formation looks likely on current polling.
Soundings may begin immediately, but negotiations will ramp up whenever it is clear that one of those formations has the numbers, either on election night or after the final results are published. There are no rules as to what kind of deal must be negotiated by parties to form a government. They can be as loose or specific as the parties choose to make them. Specific deals are more enforceable, but less flexible to the challenges of day-to day government. The 1996 NZ First-National coalition agreement is remembered for being too specific and inflexible.
What we will probably see is a deal on key policy promises announced on the campaign, with parties needing to state which side wins out where their manifesto commitments clash. We are also likely to see the number of ministerial positions given to each party.
A new government is formed when a Governor-General appoints a Prime Minister and he (this election, it will be a he) recommends the appointment of other ministers.
The Governor-General, currently Dame Cindy Kiro, appoints the Prime Minister once she sees that a party or parties can win confidence and supply votes in Parliament. What the Governor-General is looking for is a clear statement from the parties that this is possible - this would probably happen at the conclusion of coalition negotiations, when the successful leaders would announce a deal between them, a clear signal to the Governor-General that bloc had the numbers to govern.
With that done, when a new government is formed, it’s time for Parliament to return.
The Commission opening of Parliament must occur no later than December 21, and the state opening no later than December 22. However, when a new government is appointed, it can advise the Governor-General to bring that forward.
Whoever wins would be likely to do this, as it’s common for a government to seize the momentum of an election victory and look like it is swiftly delivering on voters’ wishes.
The Governor-General summons the new Parliament, which is when the new Government demonstrates it has the confidence of the House in a confidence motion. It will also elect a Speaker.
Whoever wins, a good number of MPs will lose their jobs. These are likely to be Labour MPs, as polls suggest Labour’s vote will come in considerably lower than at the last election.
Any MP who resigns or loses their seat at the election gets paid their salary for three months after losing their seats. The current base salary for an MP is $163,000, or about $3100 a week.
In the unlikely but not unforeseeable event that a minister loses their seat, they will collect their ministerial salary until a new government is formed, at which point their salary ($296,000 for Cabinet ministers and $249,000 for ministers outside of Cabinet) gets paid out at the level of an MP.
Thomas Coughlan is Deputy Political Editor and covers politics from Parliament. He has worked for the Herald since 2021 and has worked in the press gallery since 2018.
Police have thanked the public for their help in finding Hayden Kemp.